EPL is back with a freaking WEIRD set of games this weekend. We have a Friday afternoon game. One early Sat game. Three 10:00am games. The Saturday Afternoon hammer game. Sunday it’s two 9:00am games and two 11:30am games. This makes slate breakdowns very interesting.
What an interesting slate we have for this Saturday. We have thre games at 10am EST and one afternoon hammer with Newcastle v BHA. The biggest favorite (City) is in the 10am slot which is important. We hate throwing darts with the lineup they’ll put out.
To the desert!!!
-Southampton +105 2.5 (-145o/+120u)
-Leicester City +200 2.5 (-125o/+105u)
-Burnley -105 3 (+110/-130u)
Norwich City +275
-Everton -150 2.5 (EVENo/-120u)(
Sheffield Utd +450
-Man City -950 4 (+110o/-130u)
-Newcastle Utd +140 2 (-130o/+110u)
BEST GOAL SCORING ODDS
Southampton host Bournemouth coming off big wins for both teams. Of course, we are playing Bournemouth roulette to figure out what kind of performance we’ll get. Southampton are yet to win a game at home this season with a loss but have put in two good performances with a 2-1 loss to Liverpool and a 1-1 tie to Man United. They sit 9th and 10th in the table and the oddsmakers have made Southampton a heavy favorite. I’m not touching this game from a betting perspective. Bournemouth have plenty to cause problems for Southampton and, if anything, I lean towards a draw in this game. Juice on the over and I do think there will be goals in this game.
Start your day with a little bloody mary and a top six battle. Leicester are coming off a brutal loss to United away and get no break with Tottenham visiting for a top six clash. It speaks to Leicester’s quality that Tottenham aren’t bigger favorites. They have the ability to play with anyone and Tottenham in particular pose less of a threat than other top teams. Both teams play a very similar style both attacking and defending.
Both teams are in the top half when it comes to shots and crosses. An early goal would make this extremely fun to watch. This is a bit of a quick turnaround after Spurs played Wednesday in the Champions League where they let a two goal lead slip away. Pochettino has looked less than pleased with his squad’s actions on the pitch. I don’t hate Leicester to get the result here.
Norwich have to be the story of the season thus far. Fireworks. That’s the only word to describe their style of play. Bravo to them for playing their style of football, win or lose. And boy oh boy do we have two different styles of play here.
Sitting last in the Premier League with 44 crosses? Norwich. Burnley on the other hand have played 94 to more than double up the effort. This will be a super interesting tactical battle as Burnley are happy to be compact at the back and absorb crosses from the opposing team before playing direct and creating chances on the other end. That’s not Norwich’s style of play at all. Whether they resort to that if they can’t bust through the line will be the key late in the game.
I do think Burnley’s two forwards can bully the backline of Norwich a bit. You see from the Vegas line/total and goal scoring odds that the Burnley Forwards need to be in consideration for DFS this weekend.
Everton’s two wins this season have come at home and they are back in the friendly confines for this contest with Sheffield United. GRANTED, the two wins were over sorry Watford and Wolverhampton teams. What can we pick up from those games? Not much. Everton have conceded at least a goal in two straight games and Sheffield in three straight.
While this feels like an Everton win, and the bookmakers have them as -150 favorites, there is something going on with Everton. We have seen fans spray paint on buildings that they want the manager out. It has to be said that Marco Silva isn’t getting the most out of this squad.
This is the lowest total on the schedule and, while I’ll likely have Digne, I don’t necessarily feel the need to rush to the attackers from Everton in this slot. For Sheffield, Billy Sharp picked up a red card last time out and will miss the game. Perhaps that means that McGoldrick and Robinson will complete the full 90, something I don’t think has happened yet this year.
Just look at those goal scoring odds. Last year City won the home fixture 3-1 and the away fixture 1-2. If you listened to the Talking Soccer Podcast you’ll know that I do like Watford to score in this game but anything other than a City win would be shocking. They are coming off the terrible loss to Norwich last week but bounced back with a big win against Shakhtar on Wednesday.
How do we play this? Well, the capture method is certainly one action, but let’s say you take Aguero, B Silva, DeBruyne — you are left with an average of $3.52k per player. You can’t do jack shit with that. The reality is that one or two City players max should be your exposure.
Last season Sterling grabbed all three goals!! He’s certainly in form to pick up a goal or two and at $11.1k is cheaper than both KDB and Aguero. That is a route I don’t hate for GPPs. In cash, I’ll likely roll out KDB who was subbed off in the 77th minute to save his legs. Aguero was completely rested. They are my top two for cash.
The afternoon hammer and what a potential snooze fest this could be. Maupay grabbed us a goal last week but I do prefer Murray this week for the savings. An Aguero/Murray pairing is interesting on DK. Newcastle host Brighton and last year lost 0-1 at home. The reverse fixture was a 1-1 tie. That’s kind of what we are looking at here. Neither team has super top end “make a difference” talent to rely on for goals. This will be a knock down drag ‘em out fight for points. Newcastle sit on four points with Brighton just in front with five. Realistically, both teams are in the relegation race and points are at a premium.
For Brighton, a point would suffice. For Newcastle, they desperately need a win. They’ve had a tough start to the season with games against Arsenal, Tottenham (win) and Liverpool. They’ll see this as an opportunity to hold serve at home and bring in the three points.
Who’s going to do the damage? Joelinton would seem most likely but that is a stout back line for Burnley. It will take quickness, guile and creativity to break that backline down. Who has those traits? MIGUEL ALMIRON. COME ON MIGGY!!!!
For those new around here, these are ranked from first listed to last listed based on how much I like the player.
- Aguero – MCI – $11.9k
Completely rested for the UCL game midweek and in great goal scoring form. He’ll get at least one. You need two to justify this price. He’s only +160 to grab two or more goals! Very viable for GPP. I don’t know that we HAVE to be here in cash.
- B Silva – MCI – $9.1k
Made a brief 20 minute cameo mid-week to keep the legs fresh in UCL action but in line for the start here. Mahrez was the star in UCL but will likely be on the bench to start. Bernardo is starting to find his feet with a goal and an assist (total) in his last two. He’s also the cheapest piece of the attacking front three. Sterling went the full 90. Don’t mind pairing him with KDB in this matchup.
- Deulofeu – WAT – $6k
RISKY play here but he’s the danger man for a Watford team struggling for goals. He was much more involved in the attack under the new manager and his DFS performance reflected those changes with his best output to date. The price is a touch high for a player from a +2000 dog but that’s because he’s going to produce. Cash? Man, I don’t think so. GPP. You bet your ass.
- McNeil – BUR – $7.7k
This is close between he and Gross for the third forward spot but as the home favorite I have to give McNeil the edge. This is a safety play. We know Norwich concede goals as well. There is upside with this play. Six, eight, nine, and eight crosses is the kind of floor we covet.
- Gross – BHA – $7.3k
In his first start without Trossard we really saw the Gross role expand. Five crosses and, importantly, six shots assisted from Gross led to 13.3 points. He had five shots assisted in his other start this year. We can’t bank on an assist but pairing he and Murray is a great way to differentiate and climb the leaderboards late Saturday afternoon in GPPs.
- Barnes – BUR – $7.9k
I don’t know that I’d necessarily play he and McNeil together. This is more of a one off play for his goal scoring upside. He’s a streaky player and started like a ball of fire with goals in his first three games. He’s slowed down the last two but there is no better spot to get going again than Norwich at home as favorites. Norwich have conceded the most goals in the EPL.
- Richarlison – EVE – $8.9k
You pay this for a goal dependent winger. Yes he’s in decent form. Yes, his goal scoring odds are good. He’s probably the most likely scorer for a home favorite. Those are the reasons to play him. This is just too expensive for me but I’ll have him in the pool for a shot in GPPs on my non-City teams.
- Murray – BHA – $5.4k
The price is just too tasty with his goal scoring odds this week. Brighton have only scored five goals in five games, so let’s be mindful of our builds, but his realistic projection in this game is three shots and one SOG. That’s not great but gives us the opportunity to find the back of the net at a decent price. When he scores we are at 3x immediately.
- Sigurdsson – EVE – $9.4k
Do we really want to pay this much for Siggy? His only decent game this season was the random 3-2 shootout with Wolves in which he crossed the ball 10 times and picked up an assist. This Everton team is a bit on my shit list at the moment. This is a fade for me.
- Cantwell – NOR – $4.6k
What is with this price? You’ll notice I did not include Pukki in the F write up. My Norwich exposure will come from the midfield. Cantwell almost assuredly makes my cash lineup. His “floor” isn’t great from a traditional standpoint but Norwich doesn’t really cross the ball. His points come from goals/assists and fouls drawn. He just accumulates. In his dud game he scored 6.5k. We don’t want that, but it won’t kill us on a shorter slate.
- De Bruyne – MCI – $11.4k
He’s the #1 midfielder by a decent margin but my exposure will be higher on Cantwell across all of my rosters. He was given a small break in Champs League and should be fine to start this game. Does everything putting him right there with Aguero for the top cash play on the slate.
- Buendia – NOR – $6.9k
Again, I don’t quite get this price. The shots assisted king with 13 through five games. Plays the full 90 most games. Set pieces. A lot to love here.
- Norwood – SHU – $6k
About as solid as they come and while they are big away dogs, I can still see Norwood matching his usual stats. 5-6 crosses, two tackles won and two interceptions with a shot on goal gets us home.
- David Silva – MCI – $8.9k
Man, I wish this was even just $7.9k. One strategy is to take the Silvas and just run with it! The two cheapest pieces of this City attacking five. D. Silva was uber efficient in their home win against Brighton with two assists on two crosses and three shots assisted. Those numbers are hard to project but this is a great spot for him to get 80+ minutes.
- March – BHA – $6.5k
Playing in a bit of a wing back role hasn’t hurt his production but has limited his upside a bit. This feels more like a cash play than GPP. 3-5 crosses, a shot with a couple tackles and interceptions is the floor. Decent return there for the price.
- Atsu – NEW – $5.2k
I mentioned that pace will undue this backline of Brighton. Here’s your boy. I really like the seven crosses he put in against Watford. Historically, he’s been a player without a floor. His two assists and increased crossing numbers push me more on this play.
- Digne – EVE – $7.4k
Eye popping salary but just look at his logs. He’s a beast. Averaging 14.9 DK points per game. As a decent sized favorite at home, he’s a good play, but it’s hard to pay this price, especially if we’re looking to get multiple pieces of City.
- Baldock – SHU – $4.3k
I’m just going to keep playing this guy in cash. He’s not super exciting and I don’t really see goal or assist upside here but he’ll sprinkle in a little bit of everything to hit value.
- Williams – NEW – $4.3k
He’s been integrated into the team and I believe he is one of their best 11 players. He doesn’t have the traditional floor we are looking for and has been playing all over the field. Let’s see where he lines up and make a decision from there. He’s been playing a bit advanced further up the field lately.
- Schar – NEW – $4.5k
This cat breaks the mold of why we don’t play CBs. He’s apparently just a goal scoring CB….Six shots in five games is a decent return for a GPP flier. They’ll be on the front foot in a tight game.
- Femenia – WAT – $3.8k
He was brought back into the fold under the new manager last week and put in five crosses against Arsenal. Most of that production was after they were down 2-0 and chasing the game. Could he be in a similar situation this game? Uhhh, ya think?
- Henderson – SHU – $3.9k
- Foster – WH – $3.6k
- Pickford – EVE – $5.6k
- Dubravka – NEW – $4.9k