SEVERAL CHANGES TO STARTING 11’s THAT REQUIRED AN UPDATE.
1 BIG CHANGE = MARCUS ALONSO AT LWB FOR CHELSEA. HE’S UP AGAINST ADAMA TRAORE BUT WE KNOW THIS IS THE ROLE ALONSO THRIVES IN. WITH WILLIAN/MOUNT I DON’T KNOW HOW MUCH SET PIECE EQUITY HE’LL HAVE BUT HE’S UP THERE AT THE TOP OF MY D RANKINGS NOW.
DJENEPO STARTS!!! I’M GOING TO HAVE A TON OF THIS KID. NOT A MUST PLAY BUT GREAT VALUE.
MARCUS ROJO DOES NOT START. WAN-BISSAKA STARTS ON THE RIGHT WITH YOUNG ON THE LEFT AND THERE GOES EXTREME VALUE AT D. BOO.
BRIGHTON’S BACK LINE IS INTERESTING. ACROSS WHAT LOOKS TO BE A BACK 4 THEY ARE 6’2″, 6’3″, 6’2″, 6’7″. I’M GUESSING THEY ANTICIPATE SOME CROSSES COMING INTO THE BOX.
A PEREIRA GETS THE START ON THE WING FOR UNITED AT $4.6K ON DK. OK FOR A FLIER
SAD NEWS AS CUTRONE’S BRILLIANT PEFORMANCE IS REWARDED WITH A SPOT ON THE BENCH. JOTA BACK IN. DON’T LOVE ANY OF THE WOLVES ATTACK TODAY. MOUTINHO IN CASH IS FINE.
AURIER GETS HIS FIRST START OF THE YEAR. STILL PREFER ROSE FOR THE EXTRA $200 BUT IF YOU FALL JUST SHORT OF ALONSO/ROSE HE’S GOOD.
LOW OWNED GPP PAIRING OF MCBURNIE (F) AND BALDOCK (D) FOR THE WIN.
HARD TO FADE KANE IN CASH. BOTH MCNEIL AND GROSS START BUT I’M STILL TORN. WILL UPDATE CORE 4 IN CHAT.
Welcome back to the show, boys!! The international break has come and gone and we are finally back to some real football. For some, it was a welcome break from EPL and some time to play other sports like American Football. Not for me, though. It was grind time. Why are we where we are with the EPL table? Who’s going to benefit most from the break? How can we attack this slate with all our energy? Big questions with big answers.
The big news was the firing of Javi Garcia from Watford. Something NO ONE saw coming… 😉 It was time. The system was broken. The players were demoralized. This hopefully will be the spark they need to move forward. In his place is former Watford manager Quique Sanchez Flores. He’s a bit of a nomad in the coaching game but his record with Watford was fine. He led them to the semi-finals in the FA Cup and a mid-table finish. His forwards typically score goals. Enough about Watford, they aren’t even on this slate!
We have ONLY 10am games for the main slate over on DraftKings and that is where I’ll focus the break down below. Five games with one big favorite, one decent favorite and three OK games. There are different ways to go in Cash and GPPs.
To the desert…
VEGAS (Home Team)
–Brighton +115 2.5 (+110o/-130u)
–Man United -120 2.5 (-120o/EVENu)
–Sheffield Utd +150 2.5 (+125o/-150u)
–Tottenham -275 3 (+105o/-125u)
Crystal Palace +700
–Wolves +190 2.5 (EVENo/-120u)
**NOT ON MAIN SLATE**
–Norwich +1400 4 (EVENo/-120u)
Man City -650
A hot start by Brighton has cooled off quickly as they’ve been shut out in two straight losses. This is the Brighton I was expecting to see. Their one win was against Watford who’ve already fired their manager. A home tie against West Ham should be considered a decent result. The under has to be in play here as we have two teams who should be playing not to lose instead of to win. Leandro Trossard has been a bright spot but will miss with a hip injury. That’s a big miss.
Burnley are back, baby. Sean Dyche knows that if he wins the games he’s supposed to (home games against mid-table or lower) and picks up a couple random points throughout, his team will be safe and working their way up the table. Losses to Arsenal and Liverpool isn’t fun, but to be expected. Ashley Barnes will be sad to see the international break as he was in sparkling form. The break could have cooled him off. I don’t think I’ll have much of this game from a DFS perspective and I’m scratching my head on the betting scene as well.
This is nothing short of a measuring stick for both of these teams. You know that I’m high on Leicester. You also know that I’m a United fan. We are at a crossroads. Not really. You know I don’t let my fandom decide where we invest our money. So United…
Luke Shaw looks to be out again. Ashley Young is the captain of the team and filled in fine against Southampton. Wan-Bissaka, Pogba and Lingard SHOULD be back but it’s not 100%. All important, obviously, but the big one for me is whether Anthony Martial is healthy and ready to go. Dan James is scoring for fun. You know Rashford is going to start. Will #9 be ready? Will the youngsters get a chance? Will they stop conceding goals???
Leicester are buzzing at the moment coming off two straight wins against Sheffield and Bournemouth. They’ve scored in three straight games after starting the season with a 0-0 home draw v Wolves. If there is one thing I’m in love with, it’s a forward in form. Three goals from Jamie Vardy’s last two has me keeping an eye on him. And, let’s not forget, Jamie Vardy has a history of scoring against United.
I do think there will be goals in this game. I like the over and will have some pieces in DFS.
Sheffield are staying up. There, I said it. It could very well be by finishing 17th in a crazy race at the end but they are simply too organized and too disciplined to face a major collapse in form that relegated teams face. I’m still worried about how exactly they plan to score goals, but they will finish in the top half as far as goals conceded. The line on this game is right about where I had it but, hilariously, Bovada tried to throw a line out early in the week that had Sheffield as -310 FAVORITES!!!! The crazy thing is if you were dumb enough to jump on this line and then complained about an obvious line error you wouldn’t get credit for your bet, but GOD FORBID they put out a bad line in our favor…but I digress.
Southampton are Southampton. How about that analysis? No, seriously, what do you think I mean by that? They are in this perpetual cycle of making sure they don’t get relegated while also trying to push the team forward. That is their problem! If you are pushing forward to move up the table, you shouldn’t be in a relegation race. Yet, last year, there they were. This year they started with two losses. They simply aren’t talented enough to challenge the big six or seven and are an injury or two away from battling for their Premier League lives. How do you manage that? Carefully. For me, a manager like Hasenhuttl is too emotional for the longevity of the EPL grind. He came in and provided a spark last year. They’ve showed glimpses both last year and this year. Where will they finish when it’s all said and done? Probably 13th and possibly with a new manager.
We are out of August. Yay, Harry Kane season! He bagged a hat trick on international duty but who cares? He needs to do the business for the Spurs. At home to Crystal Palace is a great way to kick on from a successful international break. Reminder: Palace are better away than at home which I know makes zero sense but the stats are what they are. With Champions League starting next week, it will be vital for the Spurs to pick up points at home in this spot because, as we saw last year, the further they progress, the more their lack of depth hinders them.
Palace are going to lose. Let’s save our breath. But, real quick, Jordan Ayew has scored in 2 straight. To the next game.
What a test this will be for both teams! Chelsea are young and hungry in the attacking areas. With youth comes excitement but perhaps less consistency. What I’m worried about is on the other end of the field. Chelsea have conceded two goals in each of their last two and at least one goal in their last three. I don’t think Fat Frank Lampard really cares as long as they come out good on the other end with the points. Let’s be honest, with the transfer ban and length of contract given to Lampard, this was always going to be a year of dampened expectations and growth for the future within the squad. That is why you see more Abraham than Giroud. More Pulisic than Willian. Frank is going to entertain us all season. Grabbing goals on the road to Wolves is a whole other task.
Wolves are off to a sneaky horrendous start. They sit 17th in the table but moreso because they don’t have a win than four terrible performances. The 3-2 loss to Everton was particularly harsh. Patrick Cutrone looked exciting and sharp in the final third. He was unlucky not to score a goal, let alone the two or three he could have and should have had. A great save by Pickford. A deflection off a defender’s heel just off the line. It was coming. He’s part of their best 11. What Espirito Santo needs to figure out is how to work Jimenez, Cutrone and Jota. Last season Wolves picked up 1.79 pts/game at home, better than the 1.62 league average. They beat Chelsea 2-1 at home last season and played particularly well at home against the top six with those games averaging 3.17 total goals per game….just an FYI.
Two big misses for the Wolves. Wily Boly picked up a red card in the 90+ minute last time out and will miss the game through suspension. Matt Doherty is also out after a small surgery.
God bless Norwich and their style of play, but this is going to be a bloodbath. Let us not forget that Liverpool won 4-1, but that game could have been very different if some first half bounces went Norwich’s way. It might be a bit naive to play the way they do against the big boys but my goodness is it fun for us fans. The GREAT news is that DK has left this game off the MAIN slate again for Saturday. Personally, I love that they’ve added this little tweak. #1 – we can chase any losses with the SD slate, haha. #2 – and, more seriously, this helps the casual player. A huge advantage is pivoting based on team news. Adding in the fact that you would need to check back in, plan accordingly with salary, etc increases the advantage for skilled and committed players. Hopefully this will draw in more casuals and create more opportunity for us regulars.
For City, for starters, we can rule out Sane, Laporte and Mendy. They are are out for extended time or not quite ready to come back. Then we have the 75% crew: Stones, Gabby Jesus and Gundogan. All three provide starting 11 headaches when healthy, but with some health questions, they should remain on the bench, which is great news for Serg Aguero and his goal scoring prospects. He literally might be 100% owned in cash games at all stakes. Regardless of who starts out wide, you’ll need pieces. This is all City with a total of four. Go nuts!
Before we jump into the plays for DFS, I’ve had some requests to include MORE players in the breakdown. I’m fine with that but what I’ll do is give a breakdown for each player on what I think they can produce. I try to rank them in order of how much I like them to give you an idea of my potential exposure. I might list a player and tell you why I’m not playing them… read everything!! If you don’t like this format, that’s cool. Hit me up on Twitter @DukeDFS. My DMs are open. Any and all feedback is welcome.
- Cutrone – WOL – $6.1k
Got in some unbelievable spots against Everton. Not the easiest matchup, but at home and Chelsea are conceding goals. I love this spot much more than Jimenez for GPP.
- Vardy – LEI – $7.4k
+150 to score a goal any time. United are conceding goals, even at home. Has three goals in his last two games. Leicester are only slight dogs and have implied goal odds to score. Who’s most likely? Vardy does have a history of scoring at Old Trafford. Maguire lacks pace. I hate this as a United fan, but Vardy bags a goal on the break.
- Abraham – CHE – $7.8k
I LOVE goal scorers in good form. You should know that by now. Tammy has bagged two in each of his last two. What I love is that they haven’t been Ruben Neves type screamers from 30 yards out. They are poacher’s goals. Being in good areas with good timing and great instincts. That is what creates chances over the course of the season. Chelsea are going to score. Tammy is your man.
- Kane – TOT – $10.5k
I don’t believe we can get here in cash but I get this route. Frankly, he’s played the full 90 in all four games and in two of those only got off one shot, three shots in another, and then, of course, he had his big game against Villa. Palace are better away and that is why I don’t know that his floor is high enough for cash. For GPP…get him in your TOT stacks. They are the biggest favorite on the slate.
- McNeil – BUR – $6.6k
Assuming he starts – and everything I’ve heard says he will – this is a cash option I have a lot of interest in. Cash is slim pickings this week at the F spot and McNeil provides a great floor for the price. Eight, nine and eight crosses in his last three. Especially if JBG can’t go…
- Rashford – MU – $9.9k
The second highest goal scoring odds and, for whatever reason, continues to be on set pieces and penalties. I hate his confidence at the moment. This is a play solely based on the projected volume of opportunity to accrue fantasy points. If Martial starts, I’m pivoting to him off Rashy.
- Gross – BHA – $5.9k
The F eligibility is the key here. Should have set piece equity if it’s not March. They may even split if both are on the field. He fills a spot with a floor. Yet to start a game.
- Maupay – BHA – $5.7k
His pace causes back lines problems all day. Burnley aren’t exactly fleet of foot and with no Trossard, Maupay will be the man to do the damage. This risk? He’s been subbed ON or OFF every game this year. GPP only.
- Adams – SOU – $4.6k
Just so so cheap. He’s one of the players who are underperforming the MOST based on their xG for the year. I’m considering him for cash, believe it or not. He’d be one to pair with Kane should you go that route. He’s been subbed off every game and plays a tough Sheffield defense but I’m willing to take the chance considering what else this opens up for my roster.
- Heung-Min – TOT – $9k
He never seems to peak when he and Kane are on the field at the same time. He’s a player with immense ability and TOT are going to bag goals. In the player pool but not in cash consideration.
- Maddison – LEI – $8.6k
Seems like a plug and play in cash even on the road. Far and away the leading crosser from Midfield in the league. The shots assisted category has boosted his value even more. A season low last time out against Bournemouth has me keeping an eye on his production, but this is a spot with extra motivation. United flirted with Maddison this season and he has spoken of his future aspirations to hit that level. Expect a big performance from the youngster.
- James – MU – $7.7k
I’ve been slow to jump on the James DFS train but made no mistakes last time out. He just can’t stop scoring! He bagged another with Wales on the international break. This is very much in cash consideration territory. His price is reaching his ceiling for me. He simply can’t keep up his rate of scoring but he’s so fast and so dangerous that he’s going to get chances. I like chances, baby.
- Mount – CHE – $7.9k
Let’s be honest. He fucked us last time out against Sheffield. For once he looked confused on the pitch. Abraham grabbed both of the goals but that’s not even the issue. Mount only had 1 shot assisted, 3 crosses and 2 shots. All season lows. Wolves are a similar opponent so while I’m still high on the youngster, I haven’t made a decision on him quite yet for cash. GPP for sure.
- Eriksen – TOT – $9.6k
He’s back, baby. He took over the game against Arsenal at times. He found the score sheet. He looked motivated. The transfer window is behind him and he knows he’ll be here until at least June. The price is high but not out of the question. If your salary fits and you love the rest of your roster, I understand the play in cash. Here is one more thing to consider: Crystal Palace have conceded 60 fouls through four games. There will certainly be set piece opportunities in this game.
- Norwood – SHU – $6k
Home slight favorite set piece taker. He’s also fired a shot in each of his last three. His best two performances of the year have come at home. Southamptom play a pressing style and do commit fouls – more than 10 per game.
- Milivojevic – CP – $6.2k
I’m guessing his ownership will be quite low with the matchup and being on the road. He’s already taken 20 corners through four games. He’s on pens. Might be a stretch for cash but I might be in this range.
- Propper – BHA – $3.7k
I get that his ceiling is limited but what is with this price? He was $5.4k two games ago. With no Trossard, he’ll be more involved in the attack. This isn’t a must play but def keep him on your radar.
- Djenepo – SOU – $3.6k
If he starts he’ll be my value play of the weekend. He’s looked fantastic and lively in his brief cameos in the Prem. The new boy is not afraid to mix it up and have a go. He’s a walking yellow card, though….two in two games with only 50 minutes played.
- Ndidi – LEI – $4.2k
This is a salary saving GPP flier. I don’t agree with playing Ndidi in cash but others will have him on their radar. He’ll be tasked with breaking up the counterattack of United which he does quite well. I don’t hate this play at all.
I don’t LOVE anyone at D so for cash we need to grab any set pieces we can..
- Chilwell – LEI – $4.4k
No set piece love but his production is there. His game against Wolves is a realistic comp and in that game he put up nine pts (six without the clean sheet). In cash, I’m ok with that.
- Betrand – SOU – $4.1k
He’s questionable and we know JWP is the main man on sets but Ryan Betrand has taken three corners in limited action. They play with the wing back roles and the matchup isn’t terrible. He’s fine.
- Baldock – SHU – $4.1k
Super solid and we know that Sheffield wing backs get a ton of touches in the final third. They are slight home favorites playing against Southampton who play a similar formation. That can stifle production, but there is so little to love here.
- Emerson – CHE – $5.6k
Maybe the highest ceiling on the slate. The floor is decent as well. I’d much prefer him to Rose for the price.
- Rose – TOT – $5.5k
Woah, buddy, are you paying for production. He’s the leading crosser on the slate with 20 crosses through four games. Here’s the thing: 11 of those 20 came in one game against Newcastle where Tottenham were chasing the game. When they are on the front foot they cross much less. We expect TOT to be winning so I’m being cautious with my Rose exposure.
- Dunk – BHA – $2.7k
Going way down? Take one of the big boys from Brighton. Of the three, I like Lewis Dunk then Duffy then Burn. Throw a dart, baby! Honestly, though, the target is usually Dunk so even a knock down assist on a goal would be great at this price obviously.
- Pope – BUR – $4.3k
Brighton are playing more attacking soccer but I’m wondering how much they’ll really create without Trossard. I do think Murray and Maupay can be a handful but Burnley has a decent chance at a shutout, and should they bag a goal and get the win, we are crushing.
- Henderson – SHU – $4.8k
Bit of the same theory here but we are getting a slight home favorite on a low total under $5k. That ticks a lot of boxes. Sheffield have given up five goals in five games but they’re new boys and they look good.
- Guiata – CP – $3.7k
I love Tottenham in this game, BUT, Crystal Palace are much better on the road than at home and, even so, have only conceded two goals through four games. That is the best record in the Premier League. He can hit value even after conceding a goal. There is a slight chance they pull off a draw or win. If so, you are winning everything.