As always, we aren’t guaranteed to win every week, but we need to learn every week. My lesson this week? Hungover players concede goals. Everton are on a mission to score a billion goals while trying to concede slightly less than a billion. Pochettino really wants the United job and will have Tottenham playing their best soccer to either lock in a monster raise or a move. City are showing a ton of cracks and need a reset. United are for real, and Pogba further up the field is fantasy relevant…
NO BACUNA OR RALLS. M VALUE IS TOUGHHHHH. REALLY CHANGES CONSTRUCTIONS THUS FAR. I STILL THINK 3 D IS THE WAY TO GO IN CASH AND WITH NO HOLEBAS IT MAKES THE 3 EASY. IN ORDER DIGNE/TRIP/TAA IF YOU ONLY WANT 2 OR 1.
TEAM BY TEAM
BHA – MARCH STILL THE CASH PLAY. DON'T LOVE THE FBS. LOCADIA COMING OFF A GOAL SCORING PERFORMANCE IS GPP ONLY
EVE – NO SIGURDSSON MEANS SET PIECE MONOPOLY FOR DIGNE. MUST PLAY IN CASH. COLEMAN OK BUT A LITTLE EXPENSIVE FOR HIS PRODUCTION. RICHARLISON GPP ONLY. PICKFORD OK AT GK
FUL – SERI ON SET PIECES BUT HOW MANY DO THEY GET? BRYAN AT LWB IS OK BUT I'M NOT TOUCHING IN CASH. CAIRNEY PLAYING AT RW IS SUPER INTERESTING AS A VALUE PLAY IN GPP.
HUD – IF YOU WANT TO GO DOWN THE LOWE WELL YOU CAN. PRITCHARD IS THE PLAY FOR ME. BILLING TOO EXPENSIVE. DURM AT RWB IS OK.
LEI – MADDISON IS A CASH AND GPP PLAY. GRAY STARTS AND IS OUR NEW VALUE AT F FOR CASH/GPP. VARDY GPP ONLY TO DIFFERENTIATE. PEREIRA IN GOOD FORM BUT NOW PLAYING ON THE WING. BACK AT RB.
CC – DON'T REALLY LIKE ANYONE. ETHERIDGE IF NO LEI IN YOUR LU.
TOT – TRIPPIER BECOMES A MUST PLAY. ERIKSEN HURT A TOUCH BY BOTH TRIPPIER AND ALLI BEING BACK IN. SON ON FIRE AND I LIKE HIM BETTER THAN KANE.
WOL – I THINK CAVALEIRO OR NEVES TAKE SET PIECES. TRAORE STARTS AND IS DEEP GPP ONLY. DOHERTY GPP FB IF FADING BIG GUYS. 1 PIECE OF WOLVES IF ANY.
WAT – WHY NO HOLEBAS??? I THINK PEREYRA TAKES SETS? MAYBE DEULOFEU DOES AS HE HAS IN THE PAST. IN ORDER I LIKE DEULOFEU/PEREYRA/HUGHES/JANMAAT. 1 PIECE ONLY IF ANY.
DON'T FORGET THAT WE LOVE SALAH TODAY. TAA IS A GREAT PLAY. I'D RECOMMEND 2 PIECES FROM THAT GAME FOR CASH. THOSE 2 ARE FANTASTIC.
BETS ARE OK TO GO
Can you be both right and completely wrong at the same time? I think I did so on Wednesday. I know we had some subs win some big money, which is awesome. We absolutely smashed the showdown slate for the Arsenal/Brighton game. Personally, I lost every single goddamn penny on the main slate. The part that hurts so much is I look forward to Boxing Day all year. I wasn’t even close with my main LU but got off my initial recommended plays of Digne, TAA and Townsend.
My last second pivot to Sane/Hadergjonaj/Hart from Townsend/Rose/Schmeichel cost me 30 points and a min cash. We are never shooting for min cash, but it’s better than a goose egg. Why’d I pivot? No idea. It was a terrible pivot regardless of the end result.
As always, we aren’t guaranteed to win every week, but we need to learn every week. My lesson this week? Hungover players concede goals. Everton are on a mission to score a billion goals while trying to concede slightly less than a billion. Pochettino really wants the United job and will have Tottenham playing their best soccer to either lock in a monster raise or a move. City are showing a ton of cracks and need a reset. United are for real, and Pogba further up the field is fantasy relevant.
We still have the OVER 2.5 Goals for the SOU/WH game today to keep us profitable in the betting department.
- FUL/WOL O2.5 EVEN
- MU/HUD O3.5 +160
- MU/HUD O2.5 goals and MU win -145
- LEI/MCI U2.5 +130
- Chelsea to win -140
- SOU/WH O2.5 -140
Let’s head to the desert.
*Home teams in RED
WAT -120 2.5 (-114o/-125u)
BHA +225 2.5 (-2.5o/-125u)
TOT -322 2.5 (-149o/+110u)
LEI -188 2.5 (-125o/-114u)
FUL +105 2.5 (+115o/-153u)
LIV -222 2.5 (-185o/+140u)
STATS – LAST 5
The big game we want to target is the afternoon hammer (LIV/ARS) and we won’t know team news until 11:30. That stinks.
We have a clash of the titans where Fulham are conceding a billion DFS points and HUD are scoring a billion DFS points (without scoring goals or gaining points). Guessing they’ll be popular.
How do you not love Tottenham at home right now?
WAT conceding 1.7 ga at home
NEW conceding 1.22 ga on the road
WAT have won 4 of 5 games against teams below them in the table
NEW sitting 15th and WAT in 10th.
NEW have taken 2 points from 5 games on the road against teams above them.
Brighton score at least a goal in every home game. It’s insane!
BHA score 1.56 goals at home v 0.70 goals on the road.
EVE went OFF last time out.
Brighton have conceded at least 1 goal in their last 9 games.
TOT score over 2 goals for at home
WOL scoring less than a goal on the road.
Both teams have scored in 56% of WOL away matches.
TOT have won every single game at home against teams outside the top 3.
Cardiff conceding 2 goals per game on the road.
CC scoring 0.56 goals per game on the road.
CC are not good.
LEI have been all over the map with form but back to back wins over Chelsea and Man City are impressive.
Cardiff have lost every road game against teams 12th or higher in the table.
FUL conceding 2.11 goals at home
HUD conceding 2.22 goals on the road.
Neither team can really score…
HUD have crossed the ball 438 times this year, the most in the EPL
9 of Fulham’s 11 points were won at home.
Liverpool have won their last 8 EPL games.
LIV have won 10 of their last 11 EPL games.
Both teams scoring over 2 goals a game.
Liverpool are only conceding 0.22 goals per game at home.
From their 4 games played against the other teams in the top 4, Liverpool have won 1 and tied 3. 0 losses.
They’ve won their other 15 games played.
Liverpool are FUCKING INSANELY GOOD.
LAST REMINDER: This is their 3rd game in 10 days. There will be some tired legs. There will be rotation. Don’t spend a ton of time on your initial build. Create a list of players you want to roster and clear your schedule Saturday morning after team news.
Salah – LIV – $10.4k
Seems like a steal in a game that should be wide open. Form isn’t a question with a goal and an assist in his last 2 games.
Sigurdsson – EVE – $8.6k
This is weird. He’s needing goals and assists to get there since he isn’t really taking sets but he’s getting home every week.
Heung-Min – TOT – $11k
God damn you DK. If this was $10k, I would shove him in every single team. This feels very expensive for a player who doesn’t take sets but he’s so good right now.
Aubameyang – ARS – $7.6k
He’s goal dependent so always cheaper than other options. This is a situation that he’s just too cheap for his upside. Great GPP option, even though LIV rarely concede at home.
Deulofeu – WAT – $7.4k
Put up a DUD against Chelsea. Brilliant the previous 2 games. Newcastle aren’t super fleet of foot at the back. Decent spot here.
Sessegnon – FUL – $5.3k
If he starts I don’t even mind this in cash.
Maddison – LEI – $8.1k
At home v Cardiff City. Seems like the nut spot.
Richarlison – EVE – $8k
Goal-dependent but…they’ve been scoring a TON.
Eriksen – TOT – $8.4k
Assuming no Trippier, this is a good option and we need exposure to TOT.
Pritchard – HUD – $6.7k
I want exposure against Fulham and he’s the only player I can trust, assuming Bacuna doesn’t play.
Mbenza – HUD – $3.3k
He or Bacuna, if they start, are fine.
Holebas – WAT – $6.0k
He’ll be lower owned than Digne and TAA. Takes direct free kicks as well. I’ll prob play all 3 in cash.
Digne – EVE – $6.3k
Floor is 10. Ceiling is apparently 32 points. Great spot here.
TAA – LIV – $6.1k
14 crosses and 12 crosses in 2 of his last 3. Any assist or goal and he’s off the charts.
Trippier – TOT – $5.8k
If he starts, let’s go.
Lichtsteiner – ARS – $3.6k
He’s just soooooo cheap. Don’t love the matchup, but with Bellerin out, he should get a run out. I like it better if Jenkinson plays at only $3.1k.
Lloris – TOT – $5.9k
A guy who needs a clean sheet and win to hit value. Could be the spot.
Rico – FUL – $5.2k
You may have noticed a few HUD guys. That’s ok. They don’t score goals. At home, this is fine.
Etheridge – CAR – $3.8k
Just so cheap. Save upside.
Dubravka – NEW – $4.2k
On the road but Watford are struggling a bit in front of goal. Barring a penalty goal, this isn’t the worst spot.
BHA/EVE O2.5 -114
TOT to win -294
LEI/CC U2.5 -120
LIV to win -212
WH to win +130
MU to win -277
CP/CHE O2.5 -120
TOT/LIV/MU/MCI to win +256