First things first, let’s talk about what’s missing from this slate…Liverpool, Manchester City, Manchester United, Arsenal and Tottenham. We have a square’s worst nightmare. Where all the players I know?! These slates are actually really fun to break down, because we get to see some different names vs. Sane, Rashford, Aubameyang, etc…
I DON'T THINK WE HAVE ANY RADICAL CHANGES BUT THERE ARE A FEW KEY UPDATES.
CASH CORE: TOWNSEND, WILLIAN, WARD-PROWSE, MOUTINHO, HOLEBAS . (PROB GUESS THE REST OF MY LU FROM THERE)
BHA – SOLLY MARCH IS FINE FOR GPP TO DIFFERENTIATE. MURRAY A GPP DART. I'LL HAVE 0. BONG IS ACTUALLY ON MY MAIN CASH LU RIGHT NOW DUE TO PRICE.
WAT – I HAVE UPGRADED HOLEBAS WITH THE FORMATION SWITCH. CLEAR #1 D FOR ME ON THE SLATE. DEENEY ALWAYS A GPP OPTION WITH PEN DUTIES. JANMAAT OK. FOSTER/RYAN GPP OPTION IN GOAL.
BUR – WESTWOOD STILL ON SETS. I HAVE SOME INTEREST IN WOOD FOR GPPS AT HIS PRICE. MCNEIL IS TOO EXPENSIVE. HEATON STILL A GREAT OPTION.
SOU – WARD-PROWSE AT THE RWB ROLE IS NEARLY A MUST PLAY FOR ME. DOESN'T MEAN IT HAS TO BE FOR YOU. MIGHT HURT HIS GOAL SCORING ODDS A TOUCH BUT SHOULD INCREASE CROSS + ASSIST UPSIDE. TARGETT GETS SLIGHT DOWNGRADE WITH HOLE INCREASE AND JWP ON OPPOSITE SIDE.
CHE – WILLIAN CASH LOCK FOR ME. HAZARD/HIGUAIN GPP ONLY. DON'T LIKE MIDS. AZPI/ALONSO FINE FOR DEFENDERS. KEPA A GPP OPTION.
HUD – MOOY DOES START. STARTING TO GET A BIT NERVOUS ABOUT THE PLAY. KACHUNGA STARTING AT ST IS INTERESTING FOR HIS PRICE. MOVES INTO GPP TERRITORY. HUD JUST FLAT OUT STINK THOUGH SOOOO. BILLING AT $4.4K IS A GPP OPTION. NOT PLAYING THE FBS HERE. LOSSL IS JUST TOO CHEAP TO IGNORE.
CP – KIND OF LIKE THIS GAME. TOWNSEND A CASH LOCK WITH THE BIG MAN STARTING UP TOP IN BENTEKE. BENTEKE GPP ONLY. NOT TOUCHING AYEW. MILIVOJEVIC MIGHT BE A NO PLAY AFTER TEAM NEWS. SCHLUPP DOES START AND IS OK. I WON'T HAVE ANY. NTO PLAYING FBS. GUAITA IS GPP OPTION.
FUL – BABEL IS MY BOY. MITROVIC IS HOT. CHAMBERS IS CHEAPISH AT D SPOT. NOT TOUCHING RICO. SERI IS A CASH OPTION AT HIS PRICE. ON MY MAIN LU NOW.
First things first, let’s talk about what’s missing from this slate…Liverpool, Manchester City, Manchester United, Arsenal and Tottenham. We have a square’s worst nightmare. Where all the players I know?! These slates are actually really fun to break down, because we get to see some different names vs. Sane, Rashford, Aubameyang, etc.
Second, let’s talk about the bets on Wednesday. TERRIBLE!!! There is no sugar coating 1-6, but I did feel we were a bit unlucky in a few games. Liverpool conceding just before halftime was a backbreaker on that field. Killed our shutout bet. Killed our -1.5 bet (essentially). And started a downward spiral for the day.
Just before that goal, CHE/BOU were tied 0-0 and every single person on earth would admit Chelsea should have been up by one if not two or three goals at halftime. Well, that game went to shit two minutes in with a defensive breakdown and quick goal by BOU. From there, the wheels fell off.
Crystal Palace had a goal called back to hurt our over chances, but we did get our sole win with the both teams score bet.
One of those days where we just shake our heads, tuck our tail between our legs and look at the next slate.
From a DFS perspective, it was another decent day. We had a lot of winners in my DMs again. I personally was all over the bubble after the two late TOT goals. Prior to that, I was smashing with CS for both Janmaat and Foster (+ Win) incoming. It was going to be a massive day that turned out to be a small loser.
We did get the Son goal. Valery chalk. JWP goal. Townsend floor game again. Holebas was robbed of an apparent assist by OPTA but still hit near value (Guys, I’m still tilting the betting day 14 hours later if you can’t tell).
AS ALWAYS, SOCCER IS A BIT LIKE BASEBALL. THE SEASON IS LONG. THE SLATES ARE PLENTIFUL. MANAGE YOUR BANKROLL AND WORRY ABOUT PROCESS AND MAKING CORRECTIONS.
Alright boys, let’s head to the desert!!!
*Home teams in RED
EVE +130 2.5 (EVENo/-129u)
CP EVEN 2.5 (-105o/+280u)
CHE -555 2.5 (-175o/+145u)
BUR +160 2.5 (+105o/-135u)
BHA +155 2.5 (+115o/-144u)
CC +200 2.5 (-114o/-114u)
FORM – LAST 5
Townsend – CP – $9k
Can you believe I like Townsend more than Hazard for only $900 less? Don’t you??? Hazard looks to be completely uninterested, and Townsend is just a steady eddy. Oh yeah, and Fulham STINK. In Rico’s last six games in goal for FUL, he’s conceded four, three, zero, four, five and four goals. Woah, buddy.
Sigurdsson – EVE – $8.9k
Digne out. Baines out. Gylfi should get his fill of set pieces. The game logs the last two look great. One is boosted by a goal; both are boosted by ridiculous tackle totals. Whoever at OPTA keeps track of tackles certainly has a boatload of Gylfi. Five and four in his last two. Come on man.. Keep in mind he had three TOTAL in his previous nine games. However, this is as good a spot as he’ll get.
Willian – CHE – $9.1k
So I don’t trust Hazard, but Willian should get the start after Pedro/Higuain looking horrendous against BOU. Set pieces. Does have a goal in him from time to time.
King – BOU – $8.5k
I mean. you gotta be fucking kidding me with this pricing. You know me and strikers in good form. Three goals in two games would certainly qualify. Cardiff City provide a plus matchup. Five, one, four and four shots in his last four is encouraging.
Babel – FUL – $5.6k
Hit value last game with a six point assist, but he also put in five crosses and set up four shots. He’s involved in what FUL are doing from an attacking standpoint.
Hazard – CHE – $9.9k
OK, I don’t trust him, but CHE are -555 favs at home after getting spanked by Bournemouth. The narrative and pricing are there to make a case. I’ll probably have Hazard in more GPPs and Willian on my main cash LU. Hazard’s ceiling in January is 12…..
Ibe – BOU – $5.4k
Brooks is in doubt for the match. The likely replacement is Jordan Ibe, who just can’t seem to make his way at BOU. They may also go with Solanke so keep an eye on team news. I’m fine having some BOU exposure.
Moutinho – WOL – $5.7k
This isn’t chasing points or game log watching. He’s creating some open play value for himself and still has set pieces. In a slate devoid of great M only options, he’s the top of the heap for me.
Mooy – HUD – $5.5k
Yeah, yeah…HUD are massive underdogs. Are you afraid of this CHE back line right now? More wide open than Crystal’s legs on the main stage at the Pink Pony for Super Bowl Weekend. I want some shares.
Milivojevic – CP – $7.9k
He just gets to the 10 point mark every week. It’s crazy. The price scares the bejesus out of me, but if you just need a solid outing, you can do worse.
Seri – FUL – $4.5k
Cheap and put in eight, nine and seven crosses in their last three. More importantly, I think Fulham finally figured out Mitrovic is good in the air. Seri’s logs are hurt by back-to-back yellow cards and the lack of assists. Could be a decent spot for him here.
Westwood – BUR – $5.2k
Not an exciting player to roster, but he’s been solid. Cash for sure.
Schlupp – CP – $5k
Likely the new starter for Zaha instead of Sako. I really wish their salaries were flip-flopped and Sako started.
Sako – CP – $6.2k
Brand new signing and could be thrust right back into the spotlight after Zaha’s red card last game. He was previously a CP player and is familiar with the system. Don’t love the M only options, to be honest. So while this is a bit of a stretch, if he starts, I prefer him to Ayew.
Targett – SOU – $5.8k
Burnley sit a bit and should allow Targett to get forward to get his trademark crosses into the box.
Alonso – CHE – $6.2k
Chelsea bounceback game or another debacle? Emerson got the start last game, and that didn’t exactly go well. I think Alonso gets back in there and produces.
Holebas – WAT – $6k
Robbed of an assist last weekend but still managed to get seven crosses into the box and fill up stats elsewhere. Always a solid play.
Coleman – EVE – $4.4k
With no Baines/Digne, I think Kenny fills in and most of the attack comes down Everton’s right side. That would include Coleman. Get it.
Chambers – FUL – $4.3k
The goal certainly helped last week. He only had one tackle and one interception. He did put up three shots and drew a foul.
Hadergjonaj – HUD – $4k
We don’t want too much HUD, but the pricing is right here for Hadi.
Heaton – BUR – $4.8k
Freaking love Tom Heaton. He single-handedly won Burnley the point at United. Now they come home against a game, but less talented Southampton team. Pricing is right too.
Boruc – BOU – $5k
Ride the hot hand? Boruc was unbelievable against Chelsea, making seven saves, one of which came in the 6th minute to tap Kovacic’s sure-fire goal off the crossbar.
Guaita – CP – $5.4k
The pricing stinks, otherwise, I’d be all over it. I expect CP to pick up the win here.
Lossl – HUD – $3.6k
Could be the classic situation where a team gets destroyed, comes out super motivated and CHE shell HUD for 3-4 goals. I just don’t see it so Lossl has to be an option.
EVE/WOL OVER 2.5 EVEN
BOU Draw/No Bet -165 (David Brooks OUT)
CC/BOU UNDER 2.5 -114
BUR/SOU both teams to score YES -125