Welcome back to another edition of my Back of the Net EPL preview. We had a weekend review posted earlier in the week, looking at last week’s results. It’s important that we are looking back for the right reasons…to learn. Since we had some good takeaways there, let’s put it right to use with this 7-game slate coming up on Saturday…
UPDATES: TEAM NEWS IN AND THERE AREN'T A TON OF CHANGES.
CASH CORE UNCHANGED.
LIV – MILNER IS A LOCK FOR ME. NO SHAQIRI SO HE SHOULD HAVE 100% OF SET PIECES. SALAH MAY TAKE THE ODD ONE. MILNER ALSO AT RB AGAINST A CP TEAM THAT WILL LIKELY SIT BACK TO NEUTRALIZE SPEED OF LIV COUNTER ATTACK. PLENTY OF SPACE FOR MILNER TO MOVE UP THE FIELD AND PUT BALLS IN THE BOX. ROBERTSON MOVING INTO CASH CONSIDERATION FOR CLEAN SHEET. KEITA IS A GPP OPTION AT THE LW POSITION. ALISSON MY CASH GK TODAY.
BOU – FRASER STILL A GREAT CASH OPTION. FINE FOR GPP AS WELL WITH NO STANISLAS.
WH – NO ARNAUTOVIC. CARROLL STARTS UP TOP. DEEEP GPP OPTION ONLY FOR ME. NASRI IN FOR SNODGRASS AGAIN. DON'T LOVE ANY CASH HERE. ANDERSON STILL GOOD GPP.
MAN UTD – POGBA FOR GPP. NOT SURE I CAN GET THERE IN CASH FROM A $ PERSPECTIVE. DEGEA OK FOR GPP. YOUNG CASH/GPP. RASH IN CASH I GET…I CAN'T GET THERE FOR THE $. GPP FOR SURE! A MAN UTD STACK FOR GPP COULD BE THE NUTS.
BHA – NO SURPRISES. GROSS OK AS A PUNT FOR EVEN CASH.
NEW – I'M BUMPING RITCHIE UP. HE MIGHT EVEN MAKE MY CASH LU. PLAYING AT LWB IS MORE HIS CUP OF TEA. ATSU DOESN'T STAY SUPER WIDE SO THERE WILL BE SPACE FOR HIM TO ADVANCE INTO. RONDON OK FOR GPP. PAIR HIM WITH DUBRAVKA IN GOAL.
CC – STINKS. SOME ON HOILETT. I'M NOT. NIASSE IS A DECENT PLAYER BUT TOO NEW TO THE TEAM FOR ME TO TAKE A STAB.
SOU – SAME
EVE – SAME. DIGNE IN CASH CORE.
WAT – SEMA IN FOR HUGHES. MOVES INTO CONTENTION FOR GPP BASED ON $. HOLEBAS CASH LOCK FOR ME.
BUR – BLAH OUTSIDE OF MCNEIL WHO WILL BE ON MY CASH LU
Welcome back to another edition of my Back of the Net EPL preview. We had a weekend review posted earlier in the week, looking at last week’s results. It’s important that we are looking back for the right reasons…to learn. Since we had some good takeaways there, let’s put it right to use with this 7-game slate coming up on Saturday.
As usual, the slate will start at 10am EST with 1 game being played at 12:30 EST to close out the slate. We’ll break down the individual games and plays further down, but in general, I’m high on this slate. I think there are going to be 2 VERY different builds regarding cash and GPP this week. Generally, I’ll roll with 1 main LU that I play in both cash and GPP. Not this week. My cash LU likely won’t be entered into 1 GPP contest. I’m not saying that’s what you have to do, but that’s how I’m rolling.
I’m also considering rolling out a quick 15-30 minute podcast previewing the slate in audio form. I’m not quite sure exactly how I’ll fit all of my thoughts in that time frame, but really appreciate the feedback on Twitter.
I had another person in the industry ask me why I put this poll out there. I’m consistently surprised by how little others think about the customer when doing ANYTHING. We here at GURU Elite are about you guys and girls. What you want. What you need. What will make you better players.
My first test podcast was 52 minutes. Too long. Too much to say. It will be shorter. It will be coming to you at some point…just not sure when as of right now. Stay tuned.
Let’s head to the desert.
WAT -153 2.5 (-125o/-114u)
BOU +140 2.5 (-163o/+125u)
MU -333 2.5 (-158o/+120u)
LIV -555 3.5 (+110o/-149u)
SOU +155 2.5 (-120o/-120u)
NEW -105 2.5 (+110o/-149u)
ARS +190 2.5 (-158o/+120u)
LAST 5 GAMES
BURNLEY ONLY CONCEDED 2 GOALS IN THEIR LAST 3 GAMES.
WAT have scored in 8 straight games.
BUR have scored in 5 straight games.
BUR is on a 3 match win streak (since putting Heaton in goal).
BUR did not have a shot on goal last match but won (2 own goals).
WAT are scoring 1.45 goals per game at home and on the road (incredible).
WAT are conceding 1.64 goals at home v only 1.27 goals on the road.
BUR only scoring 0.82 goals on the road while conceding exactly 2.
BUR have only taken 1 point from a possible 21 against teams above them in the table on the road.
WAT have destroyed teams below them in the table at home.
WAT have conceded at least 1 goal in home games 82% of the time.
BOU have only won 2 of their last 12 games.
Both of those wins came at home and have also picked up a tie at home in that time period.
WH have won 6 of their last 9 games.
WH are above the league average in every metric I track on the road.
WH are scoring 1.3 goals but conceding 1.4 on the road.
Mostly due to 0-4 loss to LIV game 1 of season and 1-3 loss to ARS in game 3
BOU scoring 1.73 goals at home v 1.09 on the road.
BOU conceding 1.55 goals at home.
73% of BOU home games have gone over 2.5
BOU have scored 68% of their home goals in the first half.
United have won 5 straight in the EPL.
During that span, they are avg 3 goals per game scored.
On the season, UTD are scoring 2.10 goals per game at home.
BHA are conceding 1.64 goals per game on the road, slightly above the league average of 1.5.
UTD games at home are averaging 3.4 goals per game.
80% of those games have gone over 2.5 goals.
BHA have taken only 1 point from a possible 18 on the road v teams above them in the table.
BHA won the home fixture of this match 3-2…
UTD dominate teams below them in the table at home.
LIV are really good.
LIV scoring 2.7 goals per game at home while conceding 0.30!!!
CP are scoring 1.27 on the road and conceding 1.55 per game.
Only 60% of home games have gone over 2.5 for LIV.
LIV have won every game home/away against teams below 5th in the table.
CP currently sit 14th.
CP did pull off the stunning 3-2 win at Man City.
The game total avg n the 9 games CP have played on the road against teams above them in the table is 3.11.
SOU are taking home only 0.8 pts/game at home, well below the 1.53 league average.
SOU are scoring 1.10 goals and conceding 1.7 at home.
EVE are only taking 0.9 pts/game on the road, well below the league avg of 1.27.
EVE are scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.5 goals per game on the road.
70% of SOU’s home games are going over 2.5.
SOU have only won 1 home game (Arsenal).
EVE dominate the bottom half of the table at home but have only 1 win on the road.
67% of goals conceded on the road by EVE have come in the 2nd half.
Cardiff City are in a purple patch with a win and 2 ties in their last 4, 2 of which were on the road.
Neither team is scoring goals.
NEW scoring 0.64 goals at home.
CC scoring 0.60 goals on the road.
NEW conceding 1.55 at home.
CC conceding 1.80 on the road.
Only 55% of NEW home games and 40% of CC’s road games have gone over 2.5.
NEW haven’t played a bottom 14 side at home outside of their 0-0 draw with Fulham.
CC sit in 17th place, just outside of the relegation zone.
Cardiff have tied both road games against teams lower than 13th in the table 0-0.
ARS have been up and down in form winning only 2 of their last 6 games.
ARS have won 3 straight home games.
CHE have won 3 of their last 4 games.
CHE have won their last 3 away games.
Both teams are scoring goals.
ARS scoring 2.18 at home.
CHE scoring 1.90 on the road.
Neither are really conceding…
ARS 0.91 at home.
CHE 0.80 on the road.
Oddly enough, only 45% of home games for ARS have gone over 2.5 while the season average is 3.09 total goals per game. Make sense of that…
80% of CHE away games have gone over 2.5 goals.
CHE have only played 1 road game against a top 6 side and lost 3-1 to TOT.
ARS have scored 10 goals in the last 15 minutes of home games. That is a big #
ARS have only scored 5 goals in the entire season in the first half of home games.
CASH CORE: Milner, Digne, Holebas, Alisson
Rashford – MU – $10k
Right now, I’m going more balanced in cash so I likely won’t get to Rashford, but for the $, I like him better than Salah and Hazard. United are flying and Rash is in superb form. GPP for sure…maybe cash.
Salah – LIV – $11k
Don’t know what his ownership will be in cash. I’m guessing he’ll have some, but this pricing eliminates him for me. Great option for GPP, but I don’t love enough value to get up here. I’ll try to get my Salah goal leverage with Alisson in cash. LIV do have a 2.41 implied goal total so maybe I will get by lock on SAT morning.
Willian – CHE – $8.3k
If I was going to grab a piece of ARS/CHE for cash (I’m not), I would look here. The goal last week was a bonus. Even more encouragingly, he played the full 90 minutes and had 9 crosses with 3 shots. I do love that floor in what should be a back and forth game.
McNeil – BUR – $6.5k
Super super consistent in his last 3. He does have upside, but I like his floor. In the price range, I’m looking at for at least 1 forward. The matchup with WAT isn’t a bad one. My one question mark is how much Burnley will go for it on the road. An early goal by Watford wouldn’t be the worst thing.
Townsend – CP – $6.4k
The highest floor without set pieces in maybe the history of soccer haha. A cash staple for us, and even against a massive LIV favorite, I think I can get there. Against top sides, he’s gone for 4.5, 18, 4.5 points since Thanksgiving with the 18-pointer coming from the banger of a goal he scored against City. I get the fade, but I’m not sure I can.
Gross – BHA – $4.6k
Call me crazy, but I don’t think this play is insane for cash. The price is super low, and he does have the majority of the set pieces. United aren’t a team that has the ball for 70% of the game. I think this allows us to pay up at D and GK, which I’ll likely do.
Fade: Sigurdsson – EVE – $8.5k
He and Digne are splitting set pieces at this point, but he really needs to bag a goal or assist at this price for him to hit value. I don’t think he does either.
Milner – LIV – $6.8k
No TAA is the main reason for this play. I think Milner gets the start. If he starts at RB, I might love him even more. Depending on if Shaqiri gets the nod or not, Milner goes from a great play to a must play. The price is right. The matchup is right. No brainer for me.
Pogba – MU – $8.8k
I think Pogba could very well score the most points of any M, but I don’t know that I can justify the salary for cash. He’s been extremely involved in the attack in his new free role under Ole, and the matchup is prime, but nearly $9k for someone who doesn’t have any set piece share is tough to justify. For GPP…absolutely.
Fraser – BOU – $7.7k
Decent price that is inching towards too expensive. The promising sign for me was Fraser taking 10 set pieces when Stanislas started as well. He’s the clear leader in the role and does have some open play value. Plus matchup against West Ham as well.
Arnautovic – WH – $7k
I love this spot for GPP. BOU have conceded 14 goals in their last 5 games, and Arnie is the main man up front for a West Ham team that has been decent scoring of late. The question mark is how focused he might be with transfer rumors swirling around. I’m not sure I’ll get there in cash but certainly in GPP.
Ritchie – NEW – $6.6k
Possible cash option here. Price is right and could allow a Salah construction. Cardiff do allow crosses into the box, and if CC were somehow able to score early, we would get a monster game from Ritchie. Only 5 crosses last game is a bit concerning but no Kenedy, Shelvey or Ki so I’ll have shares.
Anderson – WH – $7.9k
Just a bit expensive for cash and potential output. He has a ceiling that is interesting in GPP but not a cash play.
Hojbjerg – SOU – $6.3k
You are used to seeing JWP or Redmond in this space but Hojbjerg returns from suspension and I’ll be targeting him in big field tourneys.
Nasri has stepped into the #10 role for West Ham recently. Snodgrass hasn’t finished a game in a while. I’d rather have Arnautovic.
Digne – EVE – $6.6k
Yes, this is at the top of his price range. Yes, he’s lost a set piece or 2 to Gylfi. No, I’m not going to fade him against a SOU team that is still SOU. Lock and load for me.
Holebas – WAT – $6.1k
He’s back!!! Maybe. As a home favorite, I’m going to have shares and he’s currently on my main cash LU. Set pieces galore. I’d like to see more from open play and a shot or 2 but other than that he’s good.
Robertson – LIV – $5.5k
This for me depends on who lines up at RB for LIV. If Milner does get the start there, then I’ll be a little lower on Roberson. If they go young at RB, then I think a lot more of the play could go down his side. If not Milner at RB and with Salah as a F, not wide, then give me all the Robertson.
Wan-Bissaka – CP – $3.7k
Super cheap but a terrible matchup. Could hit value without putting in a single cross. His pace should be able to keep up with Mane.
Shaw – MU – $4.6k
Haven’t seen a ceiling game in forever from Luke. This might be the spot. We do need exposure to United… GPP only.
Alisson – LIV – $6k
Don’t see CP scoring. How much save upside will be there? Not a ton, but should get 10 points for win and clean sheet. Cash and GPP. More cash
Dubravka – NEW – $5.2k
Love the matchup, and as a home favorite, I’m ok going here in any contest.
Heaton – BUR – $3.9k
Just soooo cheap. Newcastle aren’t a team to put 3 or 4 past a GK so this is a spot with a decent floor. The risk of being in the negatives is pretty low.
WAT/BUR U2.5 -114
BOU/WH O2.5 -163
LIV/CP U3.5 -149
NEW to Win -105
NEW/CC to tie +225 (small)
Everton to Win +175
WE BROKE THE SITE. THEY AREN’T OFFERING SOCCER FOR NOW…HAHAHAHHA