First things first, the Wednesday slate starts at 2:45 PM. It’s not a morning slate so if you have to go back to your miserable jobs you have something to look forward to on the first day back in the New Year…
UPDATES: REALLY EVERYONE WE WERE TARGETING HAS STARTED. I WILL DO A BIT OF A STOCK WATCH IN THAT CASE.
BEFORE THAT —- CASH CORE 4: WILLIAN, SNODGRASS, TOWNSEND, HOLEBAS — POGBA LIKELY 5TH PIECE
FRASER – DOWN – PLAYING IN THE WINGBACK ROLE AND NOW RW. STANISLAS ALSO STARTS. ALL THAT COMBINED WITH PRICE MEANS I'M BASICALLY OFF HIM.
SNODGRASS – UP – ANDY CARROLL STARTS AND GIVES SNOD A TARGET FOR CROSSES AND SET PIECES.
TOWNSEND – UP – PLAYING AT RW IN A FRONT 3. LIKE THIS SPOT BETTER THAN A RM IN A MID 4.
CHE – HAZARD STILL OPTION 1 AND WILLIAN 1A. YOU CAN PLAY BOTH TOGETHER. I'M NOT SURE THATS THE STRATEGY I'LL TAKE.
RITCHIE – SLIGHT DOWN – PLAYING LWB IN A BACK 5 BUT WITH TEAM NEWS SHOULD HAVE MONOPOLY OF SET PIECES.
GROSS – I GET THE PLAY BUT WOULD RATHER HAVE MCNEIL, WHO STARTS FOR BURNLEY.
KONGOLO – UP – PLAYING AT LB WHICH MEANS HE CAN GET FORWARD MORE AND PUT CROSSES IN THE BOX. PROB BEST CHEAP FB
VALUE PLAYS – SAISS, MBENZA
First things first, the Wednesday slate starts at 2:45 PM. It’s not a morning slate so if you have to go back to your miserable jobs you have something to look forward to on the first day back in the New Year.
Second, I’ll be in the chat room as usual at least an hour before kickoff talking through bets and DFS pivots after team news is announced.
Third, we smashed DFS this week. We’ve had some monster winners this year with multiple people winning thousands of dollars and even our boy Gustavo taking down a monster GPP and winning $10k. We have a great community and really do enjoy seeing you win more than myself.
Fourth, let’s talk about the bets. We’ve had a spectacular last few months to finish out 2018 but this past weekend was trash. It was just straight up and down trash. I hate losing bets but I really hate just flat being on the wrong side which rarely happens but did twice last week. I didn’t see Tottenham losing in a million years. Generally, at this time of year, the big boys beat up on the little ones because they have bigger squads. What a result for Wolves. I did say to drop the BHA/EVE Over in the chat room but I have to own that L. West Ham are so hot and cold but they’ve won us some money this year so I guess I’ll forgive them.
BHA/EVE O2.5 -114
TOT to win -294
LEI/CC U2.5 -120
LIV to win -212
WH to win +130
MU to win -277
CP/CHE O2.5 -120
However, that’s a LOT of red. Losing a -294 was a kick in the dick but really it was part of a parlay that didn’t even sniff relevance. I say all that to say this. I’m not changing my process. This season is a grind. We started off really slow from a betting perspective. Got hot during the Champions League and stayed hot the last few months in EPL/INTL/UCL. Let’s keep it going in 2019.
Let’s head to the desert.
*Home teams in RED
BOU +160 2.5 (-144o/+105u)
CHE -357 3.5 (+135o/-163u)
HUD +115 2.5 (+145o/-175u)
WH -114 2.5 (-114o/-114u)
WOL EVEN 2.5 (+125o/-153u)
NEW +450 2.5 (-149o/+120u)
**There could be rotation so make sure you are available for team news.
Hazard – CHE – $10.5k
As we’ve seen with the new SOU when you break the press there are goals to be scored. Great spot for Hazard here. CASH/GPP
Townsend – CP -$7.8k
Tends to struggle for points against the top sides but this matchup, even on the road, is one that we can exploit from a cash perspective. Don’t know that I’ll have much in GPP.
McNeil – BUR – $4.8k
He deserves to keep his place but whether he will or not is the question. If he does start, even on the road he’s fine for the price savings.
Willian – CHE – $8.2k
Cash only for me but we really like CHE to win and they should be in the attacking third quite a bit. Set piece champ.
Lukaku – MU – $7.6k
Rash is an injury doubt and Rom came on and promptly bagged a nice goal in his few minutes on the pitch. GPP only but he could be a slate breaker.
Rondon – NEW – $7.5k
Really wish he was $6.5k but he is at home and United are struggling to keep clean sheets.
Caveat = Sanchez – We haven’t seen him play under the new manager, but Ole speaks glowingly of his form in training. If he starts I’m bolting him to 1A behind Hazard.
Fraser – BOU – $8.1k
He was rested at the weekend in anticipation for this game. Should be fresh and have most if not all sets. BOU at home. Let’s go.
Snodgrass – WH – $7.4k
A bit of a victim of circumstance last time out. He picked up a first-half yellow and with his team trailing 2-0 he was sacrificed for tactical reasons. He’s still the main man on sets of a home favorite.
Paul Pogba – MU – $8.6k
His form is untouchable right now but this is very expensive. I’ll have shares but I don’t think he’ll make my main LU.
Saiss – WOL – $3.3k
Take away the 12 points for his goal against Fulham and we still have 4 points. Good by me for $3.3k. Back to back games with a shot on goal at that price is what I’m interested in.
Ritchie – NEW – $7.2k
I’m guessing he’ll be higher on several other sharps rankings but this matchup does not set up well for Matthew. Shaw should put him in his back pocket. HOWEVER, he had a set piece monopoly with no Ki.
Rice – WH – $3.4k
Pellegrini trusts Rice and just handed him a brand new contract extension. His ceiling is limited but he provided needed salary relief.
Bacuna/Mbenza – HUD $3.3k
If one of these start I’m fine in cash.
Holebas – WAT – $5.8k
The clear #1 D on the board…assuming he starts.
Young – MU – $5.5k
Seems to have retained set piece duty under Ole. .
Lowe – HUD – $4.8k
Gotta get a little HUD in here. He is still taking some sets and yes he hasn’t been great but he’s viable in this matchup against a Burnley team that sits back and then plays direct.
Jonny – WOL – $4k
This seems like good value for his output. Wolves should get forward in this matchup against Palace.
Yedlin/Manquillo – NEW – $3.7k
Whoever starts at RB is fine for the price against United. There will be plenty of opportunities for tackles, interceptions and the odd cross.
Heaton – BUR – $4.3k
It’s no surprise that the second Hart is benched that Burnley get right. I’m not saying shove him in your LU, but for the price, even on the road, this is good value. Huddersfield have only scored 2 goals in their last 5 games.
Begovic – BOU – $4.8k
Still under the $5k threshold and at home. Love this spot for Begovic if the pricing fits.
Fabianski – WH – $5.4k
Woah buddy did WH look bad last time out but return home to take on a Brighton team that have only scored 3 goals in their last 5.
Button – BHA – $4.2k
I didn’t know a ton about this guy when I saw his name on the team sheet last time out but a solid performance and clean sheet had me digging deeper. Everton and WH are actually a bit similar and if we get a repeat performance we’ll be dancing naked.
BOU to win +165
BOU draw/no bet -120
WH to win
MU to win -163
MCI/LIV O2.5 goals -158