Duke previews tomorrow’s (4:30 AM) DFS Aussie A-League showdown slate…
First and foremost, I hope you’ve been enjoying the content. I’m grinding my you-know-what off to crank these out for you. Sure, it takes some digging and a couple extra hours, but the juice is worth the squeeze. I’m seeing screenshots every morning with a boatload of GREEN! I have not had a losing slate to date, and I’m actually a little upset I haven’t upped my volume more. Will I tonight? We’ll see.
I was excited for this evening, as there were two games scheduled for 4:30 and 6:30 AM. No one wants to get out of bed so I knew we’d have three different chances to make some serious coin. Unfortunately, the Perth game has been postponed and so has the classic slate and their showdown slate. We are down to one game to breakdown, and let’s go to it before they cancel that one!
To the desert…
AUSSIE A-LEAGUE VEGAS LINES
- Newcastle +190 | 3 (-105o/-115u)
- Melbourne City FC +125
- DRAW +260
AUSSIE A-LEAGUE GAME THOUGHTS
As always, let’s start with an updated table:
We literally just broke down these teams a few days ago here and here in their games against Brisbane and Central Coast. The information is going to be largely the same so feel free to read through those brief breakdowns.
What’s changed since? Maclaren went absolutely ham, scoring a hat trick against CCM in their win, as we predicted. Newcastle lost a closely contested match 1-0 to Brisbane, as we predicted as well. So how about this match?
These teams have met twice already this year with Melbourne City winning both contests. Interestingly, they’ve both been shutout wins (4-0, 2-0). The 4-0 win was back in December, and Newcastle were the hosts. Melbourne outshot Newcastle 21/14 and created three big chances to Newcastle’s zero. That is going to be the issue for Newcastle. Can they create enough chances to have an opportunity to win this match?
In their more recent match in January, the shot edge was the same, but each team created two big chances. Melbourne City won 2-0 but picked up an early goal through Craig Noone and added a second via a penalty kick, converted by Jamie Maclaren.
Both teams just played three days ago so we may see some rotation. In fact, I’m HOPING we get some rotation. Advantage us again, as long as we are up and ready to roll with the punches. Melbourne are certainly the deeper team, and I do have them winning here.
Knowing full well that changes are coming, I’ll keep the breakdowns brief to give you a baseline. Let’s roll.
DFS AUSSIE A-LEAGUE SLATE
(Reg Salary Listed)
Noone – MCIT – $10.2k
They haven’t played with this quick of a turnaround, so we can’t be 100% sure who starts and who sits, but I’m going back to the well here. Pricey but the floor is what we love. He went 2x with his high salary last week behind 11 crosses and an assist. Something similar doesn’t quite get us to 2x but should put us out far enough – thanks to the 1.5x bonus from the CPT spot – to cash.
Maclaren – MCIT – $7.8k
I actually expected him to be around $10k in this spot, so this is a pleasant surprise. We simply can’t expect another three-goal performance. Newcastle are better than CCM, and the line is much tighter. However, he’s scored in both of their previous fixtures this season and you know I love a hot forward. The price is extremely enticing here, considering the upside.
Petratos – NEW – $11k
He does it all for Newcastle, and you pay for it. In a game where we might have 4-6 players hit double digits (max), he’s one I would bank on getting there. He produced 11.4 against the best defense in the A-League last time out. Back at home, I expect him to eclipse that number. In his last four home matches, he’s produced 18.7, 22.5, 47.3 and 25.5 points. He also put up 18.6 in the away 0-2 loss to MCIT in January. Will surely make my cash lineup; it’s just whether it’s in the CPT position or reg roster.
BEST OF THE REST
Susaeta – MCIT – $7k
I still refuse to pay $10.6k for a winger who hadn’t done jack shit all season. Well, now he’s done something. A goal and an assist last game and his price drops by $3.6k. Okey dokey! He still does not have the floor that I crave for the CPT position, but he’s certainly in play for cash and GPP at this price. He did only have two shots and scored with the only shot he put on goal. This is by no means an all-in situation. Sprinkle…
Burns – NEW – $6.4k
His crossing upside is extremely enticing at this price. If they play with the wing backs, I might be all in with Burns. He swung in eight crosses against Melbourne in their last fixture and has games with 10 and 21 crosses since. Realistically, 5-7 crosses with some tackles is the expectation here. Only one assist in 16 matches, but that is his upside.
Berenguer – MCIT – $6.6k
All he does is fire two shots per game and pick up some other peripherals. That’s three games in a row! He didn’t pay off his salary last time out, and that is why we weren’t high on him, but he did pick up 10 points without a goal or assist. There is value here with his lower price.
Miller – NEW – $8k
This depends on how they lineup. If he’s playing the wing back role, as he was against Brisbane, I have a little more interest than how I’m ranking him here. Against Melbourne, they tend to play with a back 4, which would put him at right back and he’d have further to go to make enough impact to justify the price. It’s not impossible but less likely.
O’Donovan – NEW – $9.4k
The price is scaring me away from a goal dependent forward, but I’m not bailing on him just because he didn’t score against Brisbane…not many people do. He still fired two shots and had a shot assisted. That’s after three-straight games with three shots and a goal in each. GPP only, but I’ll have some Petratos/O’Donovan in my Newcastle heavy lineups.
Jamieson – MCIT – $5k
I like this price much better than Atkinson’s, and the production is similar, if not advantageous, to Jamieson. The zero crosses against a pathetic CCM team is troubling, but even with an off game, he put up 5.2 points.
Ledley – NEW – $3.8k
The old man is making his return to the pitch and has yet to start for Newcastle but has played about 20-30 minutes in each of the last two matches. With the quick turn around and in a tough matchup, I am projecting him to get a start here. The price is enticing, even for a player who sits a bit deeper and might only last 65 minutes. This is more about grabbing a few points and letting the top end of your roster look elite.
Luna – MCIT – $8.6k
I have no idea what to do with Luna. I was all over him based on his position in the field and how they play, but in a game where he should have been looking towards a ceiling output, he lowered his floor. Zero crosses. Zero shots. Only two shots assisted. He’s my Susaeta this slate, who I avoided because of his price. If history repeats itself, Luna is in for a big game and profits will take a hit. If I’m right, that’s $8.6k we have to play with and we’ll let the others eat that salary. I’m mostly off him.
Atkinson – MCIT – $6k
A player whose price went UP for Melbourne? Noooo. I like him at $4.4k, and he’s certainly FINE at $6k, but I’m not rushing to play him. His floor is around the four-point mark. Ceiling around 15-18 points. GPP only
Ugarkovic – NEW – $6.2k
Another player who can get you 1x. He’s third on my list of players in this range but playable. Three goals in 21 provide a touch more upside.
Wales – MCIT – $6k
I projected him to start last match, and he came off the bench for Susaeta to play the last few minutes. If he or Luna happens to start on the bench, Wales is the first man off and has been slightly productive from those attacking positions. The price is prime for us to take a chance in all contests. Further breakdown in the chat if he stars.
Delbridge – MCIT – $4k
If he starts for Atkinson, I’m going to have quite a bit of Delbridge strictly because of his price and their system. He didn’t get off a single cross in 12 minutes but was active and won a tackle.
Arroyo – NEW – $6.8k
He’s had some big games and some absolutely shitty games as well. He might not even start, but if he does, he’s a tough full fade due to his upside. GPP only but in my player pool.
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