If you’ve ever played golf, you know how important it is to hit the sweet spot on the clubface. This article will serve the same purpose for your lineups every week as a DFS tournament review. We’ll dive into the plays and try to find “the sweet spot” in each level of pricing to help your tournament lineups bring home bags of cash.
Arnold Palmer Invitational DFS Tournament Review
DraftKings & FanDuel Contests This Week
- DraftKings (DK) PGA TOUR $400K Club Twirl: 150 multi-entry (MME) GPP – $44 entry; $100,000 to 1st, $40,000 to 2nd, $1,000 to 16th – 20th; min cash $70 (Less than 2x)
- (DK) PGA TOUR $600K Drive the Green: 150 max entry – $5 entry; $150,000 to 1st, $70,000 to 2nd, $1,000 to 11th – 12th; min cash $8 (Less than 2x)
- (DK) PGA TOUR $125K Driver: Single Entry – $200 entry; $25,000 to 1st, $15,000 to 2nd, $1,000 to 9th & 10th; min cash $400 (2x!!)
- Satellites. If your bankroll isn’t big enough to support playing $50+ GPPs, I’d recommend hitting as many satellites as you can to try to get into those big boy contests on both sites.
- DK limited max entry contests: Originally, I used to love the single-entry contests in golf, but with so much variance and being a GPP only player who typically doesn’t enjoy making hundreds of lineups by hand, this is my favorite way of getting more exposure to other good players while also getting some decent returns on good lineups.
- FanDuel (FD) $100K PGA Eagle – $9 entry, 150 entry max. $25,000 to 1st, $10,000 to 2nd, $1,000 to 7th; min cash $16 (Less than 2x)
This Week’s Expected Chalk (DraftKings / FanDuel)
- Rory McIlroy $11,800 DK / $12,200 FD
- Bryson Dechambeau $10,400 DK / $11,700 FD
- Henrik Stenson $8,800 DK / $10,500 FD
- Tyrrell Hatton $8,100 DK /$9,900 FD
- Tommy Fleetwood $11,000 DK /$11,800 FD
Top 5 Highest Ownership Projections: Looking for the full list? Click here
This Week’s Low Owned Plays (DraftKings / FanDuel)
Top 5 Lowest Ownership Projections (players you should actually consider under 12% owned)
- Jason Day $9,100 DK / $10,900 FD
- Justin Rose $9,000 DK / $10,800 FD
- Brooks Koepka $9,200 DK / $11,400 FD
- Joaquin Niemann $7,500 DK / $8,500 FD
- Charles Howell III $7,200 DK / $8,900 FD
Arnold Palmer Invitational DFS Tournament Review: The Golfers
For this section, I’ll list my favorite players at different price points to consider for tournaments (GPPs).
$11,000+ (DraftKings / FanDuel)
Rory McIlroy $11,800 DK / $12,200 FD: It’s only a matter of time before his putter shows up. The betting favorite (at 5/1, which seems a bit ludicrous) has been nails on all year from tee to green, and we’ve seen him jump out to quick leads after 18 holes in multiple events. It’s possible the return to a place with such good memories (his best SG: P event to date came here two years ago) is all he needs to get things back on track, which would make for an interesting story leading into his defense at TPC Sawgrass.
$10,900-$9,000 (DraftKings / FanDuel)
Bryson Dechambeau $10,400 DK / $11,700 FD: Runner-up two years ago to Rory and runner-up two events ago to Reed (WGC Mexico), Bryson’s game continues to look great and be a good fit for Bay Hill. He’ll need to start a bit faster or actually take advantage of moving day this time if he plans on winning. I wish his price was cheaper but he’s clearly in form, so we’ll take what we’re given.
Xander Schauffele $10,000 DK / $11,500 FD: First timer at Bay Hill is the primary reason he’s coming in projected below 20% owned this week. He’s a solid ball striker who gains strokes off the tee, which is key. He’s also someone who can get hot with the putter, and when he does, he racks up a ton of birdies.
Jason Day $9,100 DK / $10,900 FD: Winner of this event in 2016 (he beat Chappell). He’s good tee to green, and most of his strokes gained come from off the tee, but the real kicker is his putting on bermuda greens. It’s his best surface, and we know how hot he can get when the putter is dropping everything in sight.
Justin Rose $9,000 DK / $10,800 FD: Give me Justin Rose at $9k, and I’m going to try to play him in some capacity whenever you do. His game is terrible leading in, but all it takes is one round of magic to get the good vibes back.
$8,900-$8,000 (DraftKings / FanDuel)
Henrik Stenson $8,800 DK / $10,500 FD: 17th – 4th – MC – 3rd – 2nd in his last five appearances, and while he hasn’t won the event in the past, his game is a strong fit and it shows in his contending almost every year. This will be the first time we’ve seen Stenson since his win at the Hero (where we didn’t have any strokes gained data), but his game usually doesn’t drop too far below his baseline when he takes some time away from the Tour.
Byeong Hun An $8,700 DK / $10,300 FD: Immaculate tee to green game sets him up as a strong play almost every week. Last week’s field might’ve been his best opportunity to win after seeing Brooks, Rose & Fowler miss the cut in an already weak field. The price is good enough to stay on board and hope we get more of what we saw on the weekend.
Marc Leishman $8,600 DK / $10,400 FD: Winner on one of our corollary courses (Torrey) this year, solid course history, solid form and someone who is strong from tee to green. If the forecast remains windy, we know we can rely on him to come through with a made cut and as someone who presents upside.
Tyrrell Hatton $8,100 DK / $9,900 FD: Limited sample size, as he’s only had four measured rounds in 2020, but he played remarkably in his debut coming off wrist surgery. The high expected ownership has me a bit worried, but with the limited field this week, he’s still firmly in play.
< $7,900 (DraftKings / FanDuel)
Max Homa $7,900 DK / $9,700 FD: Homa’s not our typical brand play, as he’s not elite from tee to green, but he is a good putter, which is what propels him in his statistical profile. He won at Quail Hollow last year (corollary course) so we know he can perform at big boy courses and in strong fields. I think the price is right here to load up on Homa.
Joaquin Niemann $7,500 DK / $9,400 FD: Strong off the tee game and someone who should go overlooked after last week’s missed cut (which we were expecting based on the lack of course fit). He’s a perfect GPP play for me this week because of his high upside and low expected ownership.
Brendan Steele $7,500 DK / $9,500 FD: Another player who’s strong from tee to green, played well last week in the Florida winds and ultimately came up just short (and right) on 18 to make his finish look a bit worse than he played. Steele’s play in 2020 has been really good, and he doesn’t seem to be regressing after his playoff loss at the Sony.
Charles Howell III $7,200 DK / $8,900 FD: CH3 was a pre-tourney WD last week, and even though there wasn’t much reasoning behind it, I think it was more schedule or travel based than anything (considering he played “fine” at the WGC Mexico). Unless something comes out about an injury, it’s full-go on Howell this week, as he’s been one of the more consistent players in golf over the past two decades and comes in at a very reasonable price for all formats.
Below are the six best values when comparing DK & FD to Sportsbook Odds
- Kevin Chappell $6,200 DK
- Sebastian Munoz $6,900 DK
- Lanto Griffin $6,800 DK
- Maverick McNealy $8,800 FD
- Henrik Norlander $7,200 FD
- Brian Harman $8,200 FD
Last Week’s Hot Takes (The Honda Classic)
- Top 10’s: Lucas Glover (MC), Corey Conners (MC), Gary Woodland (T8)
- Top 5’s: Sungjae Im (WINNER), Shane Lowry (T21)
- Winner: Justin Rose (MC)
This Week’s Hot Takes
- Top 10’s: Max Homa, Brendan Steele, Henrik Stenson
- Top 5’s: Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele
- Winner: Bryson Dechambeau
Along with this DFS Tournament Review, Pari also offered a preview and cheat sheet for the Arnold Palmer Invitational!