Get your engines started for the Ally 400 DFS slate! Sean Engel provides top NASCAR Daily Fantasy Picks for Cup Series DraftKings & FanDuel lineups!
THIS WEEK’S RACE DETAILS:
Time & Date of Race: Sunday, June 20th, 2021 at 3:30 PM EST
Track: Nashville Superspeedway
Track Details: 1.333 Mile Concrete Oval
Banking of Turns : 14°
Race Length: 300 Laps/399 Miles
Last Race Details This season:
Date: June 6th, 2021
Track: Sonoma Raceway
Race Winner: Kyle Larson
Lap Leaders (7 Total Drivers): Kyle Larson (57), Chase Elliott (13), Kurt Busch (8), William Byron (5), Joey Logano (5), Denny Hamlin (2), Kyle Busch (2)
Stage 1 Winner: Kyle Larson
Stage 2 Winner: Kyle Larson
Drivers will accumulate points as follows below:
Place Differential (How many positions a driver finishes above or below their starting position):
+/- 1 Pt each
Fastest Laps (Awarded for the driver that sets the fastest lap time on each lap):
+ 0.45 Pts.
Laps Led (Awarded for each lap a driver leads the race):
+ 0.25 Pts.
Finishing Position (Awarded for where a driver finishes at the end of the race):
1st: +45 Pts.
2nd: +42 Pts.
3rd: + 41 Pts.
4th: + 40 Pts.
5th: + 39 Pts.
And the amount of points earned continues decreasing until the last finishing position in the field.
DK Scoring Notes to Keep in Mind:
- A driver’s starting position is based on his qualifying position. If a driver’s qualifying position is disallowed, his starting position will be his new spot at the back of the race. If a driver’s starting position changes between qualifying and the start of the race for any other reason (Example: going to a backup car) the original qualifying position will be used to calculate place differential.
- Finishing Position is defined as the driver’s standing order at the end of the race. Disqualifications related to same-day post-race inspection will not change a driver’s Finishing Position, Laps Led, or Fastest Laps stats.
Laps Completed (Awarded for all laps any driver completes): +0.1 Pts
Laps Led: +0.1 Pts.
Place Differential: +/- 0.5 Pts.
1st: +43 Pts.
2nd: +40 Pts.
3rd: +38 Pts.
4th: +37 Pts.
5th: +36 Pts.
And the amount of points earned continues decreasing until the last finishing position in the field.
If you’re new to Elite Sports’ DFS Picks articles, here is the rundown. Every week for each Cup race, this article will be published including driver outlooks based on a combination of track results, loop data, and performance from this season. If there are any pre-race events including qualifying and practices, this article will be updated based on their results upon completion. If a racer performs well or poorly throughout pre-race events, this will affect their outlook and be noted as such. Otherwise, all picks listed are final.
This article will feature three groups of driver recommendations: Top-priced picks, Mid-Tier picks, and Value Sleepers. Between each of these groups there will be 12 total drivers with their outlooks evaluated for this week’s race. These outlooks are here to help you make tough lineup calls that detail which drivers to start or park every week.
In case you want additional information to follow-up on this article, I encourage you to check out the cheat sheet for this race and the projections tab. Without further delay, I present to you the picks for this week’s race, the Ally 400 at Nashville Superspeedway.
Nashville Superspeedway is the site of this weekend’s Cup Series race. It is a 1.333 Concrete oval with all of its turns having 14 degrees of banking. It is a unique track based on its concrete surface as well as how it is comparable to a short track in its driving characteristics despite almost being as lengthy as an Intermediate track. Although there were races at Nashville in the lower series during the 2000s and as early as 2011, the Cup Series never raced at the Tennessee track until this week.
Since Nashville is one of the new tracks added to the Cup Series in 2021, it will have pre-race events including both qualifying and practice. Qualifying will determine the starting positions of each racer for Sunday’s race as well as the potential Place Differential upside. Practice allows drivers to get a chance to work on their setups for the actual race while also providing DFS players an indication of who to target based on their speeds compared to the rest of the field. Because of these pre-race events, the driver picks section of this article will be updated after the completion of qualifying, which may change the outlooks of drivers as their starting position and PD upside are known.
DFS players also need to run multiple lineups as well as lock in their contest entries early this week for maximum success. By entering contests right now, there is a higher chance of reserving a spot in bigger contest pools since the longer DFS players wait to enter, the more likely all of the bigger tournaments will be filled. Also, by running multiple lineups, fantasy players will remain in contention to cash out even if the Cup race becomes a wreckfest like the Xfinity Series race. It is very important to choose drivers that will not only finish in a solid position, but also to survive until the end. With all of these points in mind, here are my picks for this Sunday’s Ally 400 at Nashville Superspeedway.
LOOP DATA AND DRIVER STATS:
Here are the Top 10 drivers in the field this Sunday in Driver Rating so far this season:
1: Denny Hamlin. – 109.8
2: Kyle Larson – 108.9
3: Martin Truex Jr. – 102.4
4: Joey Logano – 100.5
5: William Byron – 100.0
6: Chase Elliott – 99.1
7: Kyle Busch – 96.0
8: Brad Keselowski – 89.8
9: Kevin Harvick – 89.7
10: Ryan Blaney – 89.7
Here are the Top 10 drivers in the field this Sunday in Average Running Position so far this season:
1: Denny Hamlin – 7.2
2: Kyle Larson – 8.9
3: Martin Truex Jr. – 9.3
4: William Byron – 9.7
5: Chase Elliott – 9.9
6: Kevin Harvick – 10.3
7: Joey Logano – 10.5
8: Kyle Busch – 11.4
9: Brad Keselowski – 11.5
10: Ryan Blaney – 11.8
Here are the Top 10 drivers in the field this Sunday in Average Finish so far this season:
1: Denny Hamlin – 7.6
2: Chase Elliott – 10.0
3: William Byron – 10.6
4: Kyle Larson – 10.8
5: Joey Logano – 10.8
6: Kevin Harvick – 11.6
7: Kyle Busch – 12.1
8: Martin Truex Jr. – 12.8
9: Austin Dillon – 13.0
10: Ryan Blaney – 13.1
Here are the Top drivers in the field this Sunday in Laps Led so far this season:
1: Kyle Larson – 1,162
2: Denny Hamlin – 756
3: Martin Truex Jr. – 627
4: Joey Logano – 343
5: Ryan Blaney – 231
6: Brad Keselowski – 201
7: William Byron – 195
8: Alex Bowman – 117
9: Chase Elliott – 116
10: Daniel Suarez – 74
ALLY 400 DFS NASCAR PICKS FOR DRAFTKINGS AND FANDUEL LINEUPS
Note: This section will be updated after Sunday Morning’s qualifying session.
Kyle Larson #5 (DraftKings: $11,800 | FanDuel: $14,000) – It should be no surprise that Kyle Larson is listed as a top-priced pick for Nashville. Larson has been incredibly consistent and dominant with five straight finishes of second or better in the last five races while winning at Charlotte, Sonoma, and last week’s All-Star Race. The closest comparable track to Nashville this week is Dover, another concrete track where Larson led the most laps earlier this season (263). The driver of the No. 5 Chevrolet had the second-fastest individual lap in practice for Nashville while ranking first in almost every consecutive lap average category. Unless he gets involved in a wreck, Larson is unquestionably the favorite and driver to beat for this weekend’s race at Nashville.
Update: Kyle Larson qualified fifth for Sunday’s race at Nashville. Larson’s outlook is still incredibly favorable as now he also has a slight amount of PD upside considering that he should compete for the win.
Chase Elliott #9 (DraftKings: $10,700 | FanDuel: $13,500) – Although he is not as dominant as his teammate Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott still is a great choice for DFS lineups this week at Nashville. The driver of the No. 9 Chevrolet placed in the Top 10 in each of the last six races this season while leading multiple laps in each of the last three. In practice for Nashville, Elliott was third while his 10 Consecutive Lap Average was fifth. Hendrick Motorsports, Elliott’s team, is the fastest team in the Cup Series right now with their equipment being the best of everyone. Despite Elliott not being the fastest of the Hendrick cars, his consistency this season showcases that he is one of the best picks regardless of track type.
Update: Chase Elliott will start sixth after qualifying for Nashville. Elliott’s outlook does not change and he should still be one of the best top-priced options considering how strong Hendrick Motorsports was in recent races.
Kyle Busch #18 (DraftKings: $9,900 | FanDuel: $12,000) – Fantasy players looking for a driver to roster without picking a Hendrick Motorsports representative should look towards Kyle Busch. The Joe Gibbs Racing veteran won the Xfinity race at Nashville this Saturday and is one of a few racers to have raced and won at Nashville in other series before 2021. The driver of the No. 18 Toyota also has 10 top-10 finishes this season including each of the last three races where he also led laps. Although Busch was 21st in practice, his 10 Consecutive Lap Average was ninth for Nashville. Considering his practice speed, there is a chance he may qualify outside of the Top 10 and if he does, lock him into all lineups for the PD upside. Expect a top-10 finish from Busch this week with a chance of placing into the Top 5 based on experience and equipment.
Update: The starting position for Kyle Busch after qualifying will be second. Although he has a miniscule amount of PD upside, Busch should still score a strong result at Nashville based on his experience at the site in other series and remember that he did win the Xfinity race on Saturday at the site.
William Byron #24 (DraftKings: $9,700 | FanDuel: $11,500) – All of the Hendrick Motorsports drivers are worth recommending while the team is hot, but William Byron especially is another top-priced favorite to greatly recommend. Byron is tied with Denny Hamlin for the most top-10 finishes so far this season (12) of all drivers and he led multiple laps in three of the last four races. In practice for Nashville, the driver of the No. 24 Chevrolet had the fastest single lap time while his 10 Consecutive Lap Average was 10th. Expect Byron to qualify well, lead laps, and be a competitive favorite for the win based on his equipment and performance this season.
Update: William Byron starts fourth for Sunday’s race at Nashville. Based on his equipment and overall performance this season, Byron should still finish around his starting position with a chance of competing for the win.
Joey Logano #22 (DraftKings: $8,900 | FanDuel: $11,000) – This week’s race at Nashville will use the 750 HP rules package used at road courses, short tracks, Darlington, and Dover. Noting this is important because Team Penske driver Joey Logano has excelled at tracks where the Cup Series uses this rules package this season. Logano has nine top-10 finishes this season with a majority of them coming where the 750 HP rules package is used, including three of the last four races where he scored top-5 finishes. In practice, the driver of the No. 22 Ford was 17th and his 10 Consecutive Lap Average was 14th. Based on his practice speed, Logano should qualify outside of the Top 10 and have some decent PD upside for Sunday’s race at Nashville.
Update: Joey Logano will start third in Sunday’s race at Nashville. Although his practice speed indicates that he will drop a few positions, Logano’s performance under this week’s rule package still makes him worth consideration for some lineups. He is more of a likable GPP play than a cash game play this week.
Tyler Reddick #8 (DraftKings: $8,600 | FanDuel: $8,800) – Other than Kyle Busch, the only other Cup regular to participate in the Xfinity Series race at Nashville was Tyler Reddick. Reddick placed 15th in the Xfinity race at NS, but he has been exceptional in the Cup Series in 2021 with nine finishes of 12th or better this season. The driver of the No. 8 Chevrolet was fifth in practice for Nashville while his 10 Consecutive Lap Average was fourth of all drivers. Considering his practice speed, equipment and how the Chevrolets are strong in recent races, Reddick is likely to capture a top-10 finish at Nashville.
Update: Tyler Reddick qualified 26th for Nashville. Based on his practice speed and great PD upside based on his starting position, Reddick needs to be locked into most lineups as one of the most favorable plays of the week.
Ross Chastain #42 (DraftKings: $7,600 | FanDuel: $6,800) – Chip Ganassi Racing driver Ross Chastain is another mid-tier option to consider for Nashville. This season in the Cup Series, the driver of the No. 42 Chevrolet has eight top-15 finishes, which include five of the last six races. In practice for Nashville, Chastain was seventh while his 10 Consecutive Lap Average was second of all drivers. Based on his practice speed, Chastain is an underrated favorite for a top-10 finish while he should compete for a top-5 finish.
Update: Ross Chastain will start 19th for Nashville on Sunday. Considering his practice speed and overall performance this season, look for Chastain to pick up a few positions and compete for a top-10 finish as one of the better plays this week.
Chris Buescher #17 (DraftKings: $7,400 | FanDuel: $7,000) – Chris Buescher is a racer that should be considered for Nashville as one of the cheaper mid-tier picks. Buescher has 13 top-20 finishes in 16 races this season while he also picked up positive PD in nine different Cup Series events. In practice for Nashville this week, the driver of the No. 17 Ford was 16th while his 10 Consecutive Lap Average was eighth of all drivers. According to his practice speed, Buescher should qualify outside of the Top 10 while his 10 Consecutive Lap Average indicates that his setup is better for long runs. Look for Buescher to compete for a top-10 finish and to gain some PD upside on Sunday.
Update: Chris Buescher will start 17th for Nashville on Sunday. Since his practice speed indicated that he should have a car that’s good for long runs, Buescher should gain a couple of positions and finish in the Top 15, making him a decent pick for Nashville.
Ryan Newman #6 (DraftKings: $6,800 | FanDuel: $5,300) – Out of all possible value sleepers, Ryan Newman might be the best choice to roster of all in this price range. Newman has nine top-20 finishes in 16 Cup Series starts this season while he obtained positive PD seven times. In practice for Nashville, the driver of the No. 6 Ford was ninth in practice while his 5 Consecutive Lap Average is among the Top 10 of all racers. Depending on where he qualifies, Newman is a driver that can procure positive PD and as one of the more experienced drivers at different tracks, should compete for a decent finish on Sunday.
Update: The starting position for Ryan Newman at Nashville will be 29th. When factoring his practice speed and experience, Newman is a must-play value pick for Sunday.
Bubba Wallace #23 (DraftKings: $6,500 | FanDuel: $5,000) – 23XI Racing driver Bubba Wallace is a racer to consider for this week’s race at Nashville. Wallace has eight top-20 finishes this season with his best finish of the year being at Dover (11th), another concrete track in the Cup Series. The driver of the No. 23 Toyota also has three top-15 finishes in the last four races and is steadily improving his finishing results as the season progresses. In practice for Nashville, Wallace’s fastest single lap was 28th of all drivers, indicating that he may not have a strong run in qualifying. Depending on his qualifying position however, he can be either a lock for lineups or a driver that should not be the first choice here as a value sleeper.
Update: Bubba Wallace will start 21st for Nashville. Although his outlook is not as favorable as some others based on his practice speed, his starting position still is deep enough in the field to be considered a contrarian option for Sunday.
Ryan Preece #37 (DraftKings: $6,000 | FanDuel: $4,500) – Ryan Preece is one racer to greatly consider as a value sleeper. Preece won the Truck Series race at Nashville on Friday and he has seven top-20 finishes in the Cup Series this season. The driver of the No. 37 Chevrolet also has nine finishes with positive PD throughout 2021 in the Cup Series. In practice for Nashville, Preece’s single-lap time was 18th of all drivers. Preece’s equipment is capable of placing in the Top 20 based on other races this year and practice, but if he qualifies deep in the field, he is a must-play if he has PD upside.
Update: Ryan Preece will start 20th in Sunday’s race at Nashville. Preece’s outlook does not change that much as a favorable sleeper value play to finish in the Top 20, but he does not have as much PD upside as expected.
Corey LaJoie #7 (DraftKings: $5,700 | FanDuel: $4,000) – Fantasy players looking for a deep value sleeper at Nashville should consider Corey LaJoie. The driver of the No. 7 Chevrolet has four top-20 finishes this season with three of them being acquired in the last three races in the Cup Series. LaJoie also has ten finishes with positive PD in the Cup Series in 2021 and his single lap speed in practice for Nashville was 19th. The Spire Motorsports driver should compete for a top-20 finish based on recent results and equipment, but if he qualifies too high in the field, fantasy players need to be wary of rostering him otherwise.
Update: Corey LaJoie will start 24th for Sunday at Nashville. LaJoie is worth consideration for the price alone and he does not start too high in the field that he should drop and lose PD this week.
CORE 4 PICKS TO WIN:
- Kyle Larson
- Chase Elliott
- Kyle Busch
- William Byron
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