Texas. This is a 334 lap event.
AAA Texas 500 DFS Breakdown
- Texas Motor Speedway
- Sunday 11/3/19 – 3:00 PM
- 1.5 mile, Paved
Seven drivers compete for the final three spots for the Championship: Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin, Joey Logano, Kevin Harvick, Chase Elliott, Kyle Larson and Ryan Blaney.
Last Race Notables: Denny Hamlin won.
- Laps Led – Kyle Busch: 66, Johnson: 60, Hamlin: 45, Blaney: 45, Elliott: 35, Jones: 30
- Start/Finish – Bowyer 25/2, Almirola 21/7, Harvick 23/8, Kurt Busch 30/9
Remember, number of laps sway the importance of scoring in different directions. Less laps = less laps led points and less fastest lap points, making place finish and place differential points a bit more valuable. Yes, you will still need the dominator, but there is less likely of a chance to have two or three of them and really separate them from the pack. I expect there to be two or three guys to get some significant laps led points this weekend.
Process: Let me give you guys a better idea of what we are doing here for NASCAR. We put out an early article with some track stats and what drivers I will have my eyes on, based on some numbers. Things can change once qualifying and practice are over. So then we put out an update with drivers who seem to be fast or have had a good or bad qualifying run. I put out a total of 12 drivers I like and a few who I am off. The guys I am off are typically guys who don’t run that well here and have qualified in a decent position.
I am trying to narrow things down for you. Too much information can just be confusing. If you need more information, you can look at the projections tab. Take a look at the scoring to better understand why I do it this way.
Drivers will accumulate points as follows:
- Place Differential = +/- 1 PTs (Where they start vs. where they finish…Start 20th, Finish 10th = 10 pts)
- Fastest Laps = +0.5 PTs
- Laps Led = +0.25 PTs
- Finishing Position Scoring (winner 46 pts, 2nd 42 pts, 3rd 41, 4th 40, 39, 38, 37, etc…)
- .1 pts for each lap completed
- Place Differential = +/- .5 PTs (Where they start vs. where they finish…Start 20th, Finish 10th = 5 pts)
- Fastest Laps = +0.5 PTs
- Laps Led = +0.1 PTs
- Finishing Position Scoring (winner 43 pts, 2nd 40 pts, 3rd 38, 4th 37, 36, 35, 34, etc…)
Let’s take a look at some of the track stats.
AAA TEXAS 500 DFS PICKS
Kyle Busch ($11,200) – Starting 12th. Crunch time here for Kyle. Been a bit up and down lately, but this is the weekend. 14 top 10’s, 12 top 5’s and three wins here at Texas. He gets back on top this weekend.
Kevin Harvick ($10,400) – Starting 1st. 21 top 10’s, 10 top 5’s and two wins here. In his last 10 races at Texas, he has seven top 5’s and two wins. Real safe play this weekend.
Denny Hamlin ($10,800) – Starting 3rd. 13 top 10’s, seven top 5’s and three wins here at Texas. Won here earlier in the year. Middle of the playoff push and fast in practice. Hamlin should have a good run on Sunday.
Joey Logano ($9,800) – Starting 11th. 11 top 10’s, nine top 5’s and a win here at Texas. I don’t think he wins, but he’s a really safe play. His last seven here at Texas: 17th, 3rd, 6th, 7th, 3rd, 2nd, 3rd.
Chase Elliott ($10,100) – Starting 14th. Five top 10’s, two top 5’s. Adding a 5th here, as the playoff guys tend to finish better than the rest this time of year. Finished 13th earlier in the year here at Texas.
Ryan Blaney ($9,400) – Starting 15th. See the trend of playoff guys here? Blaney is right in the running and gets Texas at a good time. His last four here are 37th, 2nd, 5th and 6th. I expect him to have some speed all day and run towards the front.
Kyle Larson ($9,200) – Starting 13th. Up and down here at Texas. GPP. Larson is going to need an up day on Sunday. Another driver right in the thick of the playoffs. Larson has four top 10’s and three top 5’s here.
Jimmie Johnson ($8,600) – Starting 23rd. Insane resume and that’s including here at Texas. 22 top 10’s, 16 top 5’s and seven wins. Seeing JJ with a great run on Sunday would be great. Finding some speed in the late season; I see that continuing on Sunday.
Erik Jones ($8,400) – Starting 2nd. Four top 10’s, three top 5’s in six races here. Finished 4th in each of his last three here at Texas.
Daniel Suárez ($7,200) – Starting 7th. One top 10, one top 5. Finished 3rd last time out at Texas. Few finishes in the teens, but only a five-race sample size. Nice price for a good team (Stewart-Haas).
Aric Almirola ($7,500) – Starting 6th. Has three top 10’s at Texas and has been trending up here. His last two finishes were 7th and 8th at Texas. Not in the playoffs, but should run well this weekend.
Michael McDowell ($5,700) – Decent speed in practice. Starting 27th. Solid sleeper pick. Finished 15th here earlier in the year.
Ricky Stenhouse ($6,800) – Starting 9th. Real quick in practice. GPP guy. Numerous finishes in the teens.
AAA TEXAS 500 PICKS TO WIN
- Kyle Busch
- Kevin Harvick
- Denny Hamlin
- Sleeper – Jimmie Johnson
Last race predictions: First Data 500
As usual, if you have any questions, hit me up on Twitter @trmp31. Let’s see some screenshots of the wins this weekend!!!