Learn about the course for the 3M Open and what types of golfers are likely to succeed on it for PGA DFS.
Before jumping into the details of this week’s PGA Tour Event, I wanted to mention a timeline for all PGA DFS items that you can expect each and every week from Frank and myself:
- Monday: Course/Event Preview
- Tuesday: Cash article, GPP article, Cheat Sheet
- Wednesday: DFS Stream, chat room to answer lineup questions (8pm EST)
Note: DFS Stream will be posted on Wednesday this week
Without further ado, let’s jump into this week’s event.
Event: 3M Open
Dates: Thursday July 22nd through Sunday July 25th
Course: TPC Twin Cities (Arnold Palmer designed)
Field: 156 players
Cut: Field will be cut to the low 65 and ties after 36 holes (Friday evening)
Past winners: Thompson (2020), Wolff (2019)
- Thursday/Friday: 2:30pm-6:30pm EST (Golf Channel) plus PGA Tour Live featured groups available all day
- Saturday/Sunday: 1pm-3pm EST (Golf Channel), 3pm-6pm EST (CBS) plus PGA Tour Live featured groups available all day
- TPC Twin Cities features 3 par 5s that typically play easy and yield a lot of birdies as they can be reachable by most of the field even though they are long
- 48% birdie or better rate across the 3 par 5s
- The course features 4 par 3s all of which will require mid to long irons (177, 204, 228, 202)
- The distribution of length of the 11 par 4s:
- < 400 yards: 2
- 400-449: 4
- 450+: 5
- Off the Tee:
- In terms of shots off the tee, driver will be used on a large percentage of the holes with the average player laying up on 2-4 of the 14 tee shots.
- Fairways can be extremely firm which make the course play fairly short especially considering the abundance of drivers used
- Distance is a big edge this week as the 3 par 5s are all 550 or longer, but still are all reachable by most of the field. Those who hit the ball far will have the ability to have irons into the par 5s which will provide a significant edge.
- There is a lot of water in play off the tee, but the landing areas are wide enough where only errant shots are penalized by finding the water
- Approach Shots:
- The historical distribution of approach shots at this course is right on Tour average in every yardage bucket. As such, we can just rely on overall strokes gained approach this week and don’t have to place emphasis on certain yardages.
- This will be the most important stat of the week. This is because simply put, you need to hit the ball close to make enough birdies to win the event.
- The greens this week are bentgrass and will be 12 on the stimpmeter (Tour average speed)
- Putting this week will be slightly more important than a normal week on Tour because of the abundance of makeable putts for birdie. Like we saw at the John Deere 2 weeks ago, players will see a lot of putts for birdie inside 15 feet and whoever can make the most will contend this week.
- Around the Green:
- This metric can almost be completely ignored this week. The tour average for greens in regulation is 66% and we have seen 74% historically here. That means the average player is only missing 4-5 greens per round. Add to that the fact that the green surrounds here are pretty simple and we are left with an extreme lack of importance on chipping and pitching this week.
What type of player typically succeeds here?
- Ideal player would be a player who:
- Hits it long off the tee (doesn’t have to be the straightest but keep it on the planet) as that allows them to easily reach the 3 par 5s (Par 5s are twice as important on a strokes gained perspective compared to par 3s and par 4s on this course).
- Above average overall iron game
- Above average putting with preference to bentgrass greens
What areas of a player’s game will be tested the most this week?
- Strokes Gained Off the Tee
- Players who gain strokes off the tee specifically due to distance will have a larger than normal edge this week
- Strokes Gained Approach
- Strokes Gained Putting
- Par 5 Scoring
- Players will need to capitalize on these holes as they are twice as important as par 3s and par 4s
- Scoring/Ability to convert birdies
- Players will need to capitalize on their birdie attempts this week as the winning score will be -20 or better
Check back in on Tuesday for the Cash article, GPP article and Cheat Sheet
Note: DFS Stream will be posted Wednesday this week