Ray Flowers (@BaseballGuys) analyzes Week 10 NFL Gameday Matchups and lets you know who’s in a tough spot, who’s in a soft one, who’s hurt and anything else you need to know before you set your lineups! Armando Marsal (@Armando_Marsal) will include his thoughts from a DFS perspective, giving you his cash game and GPP plays from each game (top plays in bold). The duo will provide you an in-depth analysis to give you an edge against your opponents.
Week 10 DFS NFL Gameday Matchups
Each week Ray Flowers will give his take on the matchups of the week. How are defenses fairing against positions? Which guys have great matchups, or poor ones? Who is dealing with an injury? It’s all in here.
2020 TEAM DEFENSE RANKINGS
Here is a chart of the DVOA ratings of overall defenses from Football Outsiders (1 is best defense, 32 the worst defense).
NFL Gameday Matchups DVOA Table
*From Football Outsiders
2020 RANKING PER POSITION
*Yahoo scoring (1st is best for offense, 32nd is worst for offense).
Team vs. QBs
Team vs. RBs
Team vs. WRs
Team vs. TEs
THE BETTING ANGLE TOTAL/SPREAD
WEEK 10 DEFENSIVE MATCHUPS
BYE: Falcons, Cowboys, Chiefs, Jets
Sunday, November 15th
Buccaneers at Panthers, 1 p.m. (Fox)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tom Brady went 209-0-3 on 38 woeful passes last week as he was pressured on more than half his dropbacks. The three picks were his first in five games. He has eight passing scores in four games, even without one last week. In the Week 2 meeting, he had one score and one pick.
The opponent allows the most receptions to running backs. Also, the 5th most points a game.
RB Snaps: Fournette 33, Jones 16, McCoy 0, Vaughn 0
RB Touches: Fournette 7, Jones 6
The team ran the ball five times last week, including a kneel down on the final series by QB Blaine Gabbert. It was a record.
Leonard Fournette led the team with six catches, as he produced 41 yards last week. He has one carry for nothing. He has run for 50-yards in 2-of-3. He hasn’t scored in four games. He had 137 scrimmage yards in his last game in Carolina and went 103-2 in the Week 2 matchup.
Ronald Jones went 3-9 last week. In the last three games, he has gone 23-66-1 with eight grabs for 34 yards. He scored in the last two meetings including Week 2.
LeSean McCoy has two catches for nine yards since Week 3.
Ke’Shawn Vaughn has not touched the ball since Week 6.
The opponent allows the 7th fewest points a week to wideouts.
WR Snaps: Godwin 47, Evans 39, Brown 39, Miller 19, Johnson 6
WR Air Yards: Brown 99, Godwin 90, Evans 56
Antonio Brown’s first game with the team led to a 5-3-31 effort, as he played just over 75 percent of the snaps. He didn’t flash chemistry with Brady. He has gone 90-1 in the last two matchups. He might see less work this week.
Mike Evans was shut down last week by Marshon Lattimore, but when the defender went down, Evans ended up with four receptions for 64 yards in the second half. He has five scores in five road games. He has one score in four games overall. He went 104-1 in the last matchup.
Chris Godwin (finger) returned to action and went 6-3-41. He has five catches in 4-of-5 games. He has two scores this season. He has scored his last two on the road and has gone for 100-yards in 3-straight in the matchup.
Tyler Johnson has two scores in four games while going 6-6-57 overall.
Scott Miller went 3-1-10 last week while playing more than a third of the snaps.
Justin Watson does not have a catch since Week 4.
Cameron Brate has four catches for 46 yards the last four games.
Rob Gronkowski went 6-1-2 last week. Yes, six targets produced two yards. Two. Oh, and he dropped a touchdown pass. He has three scores in four games. He has caught four passes in 3-of-4 games.
Teddy Bridgewater went 36-of-49 for 310-2 last week with a rushing score. He has three picks in four games and five scores in the air over three outings. He went for 367-0-2 in the last matchup. The Bucs are tied for the league lead with 11 picks. The Bucs allow the 7th fewest points to QBs. They have the #2 DVOA pass defense.
RB Snaps: McCaffrey 59, Davis 26
RB Touches: McCaffrey 28, Davis 6, Samuel (3 carries)
Mike Davis went just 1-3 on the ground but 5-34 on six targets. He leads all RBs in forced missed tackles per touch. He has averaged nearly 18 PPR points in the six starts he’s made this year. He has 43 grabs, second-most at RB. He went 8-74 as a pass catcher in the earlier matchup. The Bucs have allowed the second-most catches to RBs.
Christian McCaffrey (shoulder) returned to score twice, including once as a pass catcher when he wasn’t covered, as he went 28-151-2 overall as he scored as a runner and catcher with 10 receptions. It is unclear if he will play this week. He has two rushing scores in each of the last two matchups. He will not play this week.
WR targets last three games: Anderson 29, Samuel 20, Moore 14
Robby Anderson saw 13 targets going 9-63 last week. He has been under 65-yards in two straight. As great as he has been, he has just one score back in Week 1. He has at least eight targets in 5-of-6 games averaging 6.7 grabs and 79 yards. He went 9-109 in the last matchup.
D.J. Moore saw three targets when Bridgewater threw the ball 49 times. He went 2-18. That’s 4-73 the last two games after 3-straight of 4-93. He went 8-120 in the last matchup and has 85 scrimmage yards in 3-straight in the matchup. He is still top-10 in air yard percentage this season.
Curtis Samuel had three carries and he went 9-105-1 as a pass catcher last week as he has started to dominate out of the slot. He has scored in 3-straight (four total scores). In those three games, he’s averaged 7-6-61 as a pass catcher. His aDOT last year was 14.6. This season it is less than half at 6.7.
Ian Thomas has one score this season and one game with three catches and 20 yards.
DFS Notes: The Bucs and Panthers face off for the second time this season. In their Week 2 meeting, Tampa Bay won 31-17. Coming off an embarrassing loss to the Saints, I expect the Bucs to rebound nicely in this contest. This contest currently has a 50.5 over/under and the Bucs are 6.5-point favorites.
The Panthers have a tough matchup at hand and are expected to be without Christian McCaffrey this week, after he injured himself last week in his first game back since Week 2. Tampa Bay is the top ranked defense according to DVOA, and rank top three in both pass and rush defense DVOA. They are as stingy as it comes. The Panthers on the other hand, are well below average defensively. They rank 21st in rush defense DVOA and 24th in rush defense DVOA. They can be beat through the air and on the ground, but targeting with running backs is something I have been doing all season.
Leonard Fournette (DK $5500, FD $6400, SD 1.65x) is in a good spot. He has played better than Ronald Jones in recent weeks and has played more offensive snaps as well. Fournette has appeared in at least 56 percent of the offensive snaps in the last three games, including in 65+ percent each of the last two games. During that stretch, he has touched the ball at least 17 times in two of those three contest. In Week 2 when these teams faced off, Fournette rushed for 103 yards and two touchdowns, adding four receptions for 13 yards.
The Panthers are yielding 4.6 YPC to opposing backs, while surrendering nine rushing touchdowns (tied for 3rd most) to the position. In addition, they have allowed the most receptions (63) for 428 receiving yards (5th most), while giving up an 84 percent catch rate (4th highest) to the position. This bodes extremely well for Fournette who has no less than six targets in three straight games. He is certainly risky because at any moment Bruce Arians can go back to Jones (don’t ask me why), which is why I won’t roster Fournette in cash. That said, at his price and with his recent increase in playing time, I am interested in tournaments.
You can consider some of the Bucs receivers this week such as Mike Evans and Chris Godwin if you want. However, none of them truly stand out to me as must plays. Evans did catch seven passes for 104 yards and touchdown in his last meeting against Carolina, but that was without Godwin nor Antonio Brown in the game. We saw the Bucs spread the ball last week, making this a spot I prefer not targeting.
On the Panthers side, I only have interest in one player and that is Mike Davis (DK $4000, FD $5400, SD 1.4x). Of course, this is only if CMC does not play, which he is not expected to. I prefer him on DK where he is criminally underpriced this week. The Bucs are far from an appealing matchup for Davis. In fact, it’s a brutal running matchup as this unit is giving up only 55.8 rushing yards per game and 3.0 YPC to opposing backs. That said, they have allowed seven rushing touchdowns and have surrendered the second most receptions (59), as well as the sixth most receiving yards (417) to running backs. In addition, they allow a healthy 81 percent catch rate and have given up two receiving touchdowns to running backs.
Davis’ ability to catch passes out of the backfield, make him an extremely appealing option on DK where it’s a PPR scoring setting. In Week 2, Davis stepped in for the injured CMC and caught all eight of his targets against this Bucs defense. Davis has caught at least five passes in all but two games since Week 2 and has two receiving touchdowns in that stretch. At just $4K, you get a high usage back who offers a nice floor and will be featured in the red zone. Game script doesn’t impact him either, making him a safe play.
Cash game options: Mike Davis (preferably DK)
Gpp options: Leonard Fournette
Texans at Browns, 1 p.m. (Fox)
Deshaun Watson went 281-2 last week and 10-50 as a runner. His aDOT is up slightly to 9.6. He has gone 275 yards with a 105 QB Rating in 5-straight, and in his last six, he’s averaged 308 yards, 2.5 touchdowns and 0.5 picks. Only four other QBs have ever done that.
RB Snaps: Duke J 52, David J 7
RB Touches: Duke J 19, David J 2
David Johnson (head) barely played last week. He has scored in 2-of-3 but also 2-of-5. He has gone 35-115 the last three on the ground (3.3 YPC). He has a mere 1.7 YAC. It is unclear if he will play this week.
Duke Johnson went 16-41-1 last week and caught four balls for 32 yards. Twenty touches for 70 scrimmage yards do not impress, but he does have a #RevengeGame this week and scored on the ground for the first-time last week. He has one game of 25 rushing yards and no games of 45 receiving yards.
The opponent allows the fifth-most points a week to wideouts.
Randall Cobb has scored in 2-of-3 on the road. He has one score in five games overall. In his last five games, he has one outing of 50-yards while averaging 4.4 catches for 43.2 yards.
Keke Coutee caught 56 passes for 841 yards as a senior in high school.
Brandin Cooks has seen at least nine targets in all four games since the coaching change was made with a 28 percent target share. He’s scored three times in that timeframe while averaging (last week he went 9-3-83-1).
Will Fuller went 5-100-1 last week. He’s gone for 100 yards in 2-of-3 and he has scored in, get this, 6-straight games to set a franchise record. He has played 85 percent of the snaps this year and is on pace for 12 touchdowns.
Kenny Stills has two catches in three games. He has one score this season.
Jordan Atkins ran 13 routes last week. He has not scored in four games. He has averaged 3.2 grabs for 37.4 yards per outing.
Darren Fells ran 16 routes last week. He went 3-2-26. That’s three catches in two games. He does have two scores and two games of 55-yards in four outings.
Baker Mayfield (Covid) should play this week. He’s been over 250-yards once but under 200-yards five times. He is averaging 189 passing yards a game with 1.9 passing scores. He has two passing scores in 4-of-5 games. He threw for 397 yards in the last meeting. The Texans have allowed 18 passing scores with two picks.
The opponent is allowing the third-most points a week to running backs.
Nick Chubb (knee) had a rushing score in the last meeting. He has gone 100-2 the last two at home, averaging 21-116-2 in those two outings. He hopes to play this week, but no decision will be made until at least Friday.
Kareem Hunt has scored in 3-of-4 home games. With Chubb out the last four games, he’s averaged 16-64 on the ground and 2.5 catches for 18 yards. He scored twice in four games but did relatively nothing.
WR Routes last game: Landry 25, Higgins 23, Hodge 22, Peoples-Jones 2
The Texans have allowed the third-most points to wideouts the last three weeks. The opponent also allows the 7th most points a week to wideouts this season.
Rashard Higgins went 4-62-1 in the last meeting. He has two scores in four outings but only once has he gone 3-35 in those four outings. He’s seen nine targets his last two games going 7-124-0.
Jarvis Landry has not scored this season. He has caught nine balls for 100 yards the last two games. He has a nearly 30-percent target share the last three. He’s hit 48 yards in 4-of-5 games. He’s averaging 4-52 per game this season. He went 4-52 in the last outing. In the last meeting, he went 6-103. He has gone 5-80 the last two meetings. Houston has the worst slot defense in football this year by QB Rating.
Harrison Bryant has seen eight targets the last two games going 7-81-2. He has two scores in five games.
Austin Hooper (appendix) didn’t play the last two games. He had seen six targets, catching five balls, each of the previous three games. He doesn’t have a game of 60-yards this season. He has one touchdown this season.
David Njoku has one score in four games. In those four, he’s gone 10-5-52-1. He’s played 60 percent of the snaps the last two games.
DFS Notes: The Browns who are coming off a bye, host the Texans. This contest opened up with a 54-point over/under, but since has dropped eight points and now sits at a 46-point implied total. That is a significant decrease and it somewhat concerning, considering I have a lot of interest in this contest. The Browns are 3.5-point favorites in this contest and both teams have implied totals of over 21 points.
The Texans are expected to be without David Johnson this week, which means that Duke Johnson (DK $5000, FD $5800, SD 1.85x) should operate as the featured back. The matchup against the Browns is not that great, as they have done a decent job against the run this season. They limit running backs to 81.3 rushing yards per game and 3.9 YPC. Duke’s involvement in the passing game is what makes him appealing, but truth be told, he’s not overly discounted on DK to make him a slam dunk play. I do think his SD multiplier is excellent and would prefer rostering him there.
Deshaun Watson (DK $6900, FD $8300, SD 1.2x) is one of my favorite quarterback plays of the week. Cleveland ranks 20th in pass DVOA and is giving up 281.8 passing yards per game (8th most). They have surrendered 17 passing touchdowns and give up over 20 fantasy points per game on both DK & FD. Watson has really picked things up, throwing for at least 300 yards in all but one game since Week 4 and throwing touchdown passes in every game during that stretch. He is someone I am willing to roster in all formats.
I going back to the well with Brandin Cooks (DK $5600, FD $6300, SD 1.55x) this week in all formats. He was one of my priority plays last week, and is someone I am prioritizing again this week. His price remains reasonable across the industry and since the coaching change in Houston, Cooks has played well. In his last four games, he has seen no less than nine targets in every game. During that stretch, he has scored a touchdown in all but one game and has no less than 60 receiving yards in any contest, while eclipsing 80 receiving yards twice. Like I mentioned last week, Cooks is not someone I would normally consider in cash, but based on how well he’s been playing, his role in the offense, and the matchup at hand, he’s a viable option in all formats this week. Will Fuller is also a strong play this week, but I prefer him in GPP’s and still like Cooks over him because of the price discount we get.
Assuming Nick Chubb (DK $6800, FD $8200, SD 1.3x) is a full-go this week, he is a very strong play. The Texans are atrocious against the run, allowing 144.9 rushing yards per game and 5.4 YPC to opposing running backs. They have also surrendered 10 rushing touchdowns (2nd most) and are giving up over 25 fantasy points per game on both FD and DK. I’m keeping a close eye on his status heading into Sunday, but I like him a ton this week if he plays.
Jarvis Landry (DK $5900, FD $6000, SD 1.45x) is a very strong play this week and someone I believe will go somewhat overlooked. The Texans have been generous to opposing wide receivers, allowing 170.3 receiving yards per game to the position, while surrendering 13 receiving touchdowns (tied for 2nd most). They are also giving up a healthy 71 percent catch rate to receivers, which is second most in the NFL. They specifically struggled against slot receivers, where Landry has lined up in 53 percent of his snaps this season. Let’s not forget that prior to their bye week, Landry was peppered with 11 targets. I prefer him in tournaments, but am totally fine with him in all formats.
Cash game options: Deshaun Watson, Brandin Cooks, Nick Chubb
Gpp options: Jarvis Landry, Will Fuller, Duke Johnson, Austin Hooper
Washington Football Team at Lions, 1 p.m. (Fox)
Washington Football Team
Kyle Allen had a horrific ankle injury last week.
Alex Smith threw for 325-yards last week, even with a ghastly 3.5 aDOT, the worst of the season for any QB with 25 dropbacks. He went 24-fo-32 with a score and three picks. He has 22 passing scores and four picks his last 11 on the road.
Dwayne Haskins will apparently be the backup now.
The opponent is allowing the most points a week to running backs.
RB Snaps: JDM 45, Gibson 25, Barber 1
RB Touches: JDM 12, Gibson 9
Peyton Barber has gone 21-52 the last seven games.
Antonio Gibson went 6-20-1 last week and then 3-35 as a pass catcher. He has been under 35-rushing yards in 3-of-4 games and under 50-yards on the ground in 5-of-6. He has caught at least three passes in 5-of-6 games but has hit 40-yards there just once. He has one third-down touch this season (a 1-yard catch).
Bryce Love (knee) is on the IR. He might return before the year is over.
J.D. McKissic ran a league-high 31 passing routes out of the backfield last week, as he saw 14 targets, catching nine. Fourteen targets. Nine catches. Both career bests. He has 34 grabs, fourth at RB. He has caught six passes in 4-of-5 games averaging six grabs for 42 yards.
Antonio Gandy-Golden last touched the ball on offense in Week 3.
Dontrelle Inman (hamstring) hasn’t played since Week 7. He has one game of 40-yards this season. He last scored in Week 3.
Terry McLaurin went 7-7-115-1 last week as his 68-yard score was, what, 48-yards after the catch? He has 90-1 in each of his last two games. He has caught seven passes for 74 yards each of the last three games. He’s over 70-yards in 6-of-7 games.
Cam Sims played 40 snaps, second-most at WR, and produced. He went 4-3-110 with each catch being at least 32 yards. He had four catches for 61 yards entering the game.
Steven Sims Jr. has one catch since Week 2.
Logan Thomas went 6-3-28 last week. He has scored in 2-of-3 games. He has one game of four catches in five outings and one game of 45 yards this season. He has exactly four targets in 4-of-5 games.
Matthew Stafford left last week with a concussion. He went 211-1-2 on 32 passes. He has one touchdown pass in 3-of-4 games. He has three picks in two games and five in five games. He’s been over 330-yards in 2-of-3. He has three scores in 5-of-6 at home. He has eight scores in four matchups. The WFT allows 186 passing yards an outing, lowest in football, just 11 scores, and has eight picks. They have the top DVOA pass defense mark.
RB Snaps: Swift 30, Johnson 25, Peterson 20
RB Touches: Swift 16, Peterson 11, Johnson 7
Kerryon Johnson had a season-best 65 scrimmage yards last week. His 29 rushing yards were his most since Week 2. He caught three balls for 26 yards. Both numbers are season bests.
Adrian Peterson went 8-29 on the ground last week. He has not scored in 3-straight averaging 8-22 a week. He has four scores the last four in the matchup.
D’Andre Swift had 16 touches leading to 97 scrimmage yards (13-64 as a runner and 3-33 as pass catcher). The 13 carries were the second most of the season. He has three scores in four games. In his last three games, he’s gone 28-92 on the ground with 10 grabs for 76 yards.
The opponent allows the fewest points a week to wideouts.
Danny Amendola went 10-7-77 last week, a season-best effort. He has gone at least 3-50 the last three games. He has not scored this season. He has 50-yards his last three at home and his last three overall.
Quintez Cephus has two catches since Week 2.
Kenny Golladay (hip) didn’t play last week. He played just 18 snaps in Week 8. In the first four games he played this season, he averaged 5-85-0.5 on seven targets. His aDOT was 14.6 last year. It is 14.6 this year.
Marvin Hall went 5-3-28 last week. That’s 12 targets leading to 7-141-0 the last two weeks. He has one game of 30-yards.
Marvin Jones went 3-43-1 last week on four targets. He has scored the last two games (three times overall). He has one game of 50-yards the last five outings. He went for 94 yards in the last home meeting.
T.J. Hockenson has scored in 4-of-5 games. His average the last three games, all of at least five catches, is 5.7 catches for 54 yards. In every game he has played, he has scored or caught four passes for 50 yards. The opponent allows the 6th most points a game to tight ends.
DFS Notes: This matchup between Detroit and Washington has one of the lowest implied totals of the entire week at just 46.5 points. Detroit is favored by 3.5 points. The Lions will once again be without Kenny Golladay.
Naturally one of the first thoughts that comes to mind when Golladay is out, is rostering Marvin Jones. That said, this is a difficult matchup against the No. 1 ranked pass defense according to DVOA. Washington has been stingy to wide receivers this season, giving up 129.5 receiving yards (2nd lowest) and three receiving touchdowns (tied for fewest) to the position. In addition, they allow just a 62 percent catch rate to wideouts, which is bottom six in the NFL. Therefore, Jones is off my radar this week despite three touchdowns in his last two games.
The one player I am keen on from this contest is Antonio Gibson (DK $5600, FD $6100, SD 1.6x). This Lions defense struggles immensely against the run, ranking 25th in rush defense DVOA. Detroit surrenders 134.9 rushing yards per game (2nd most) and has allowed 10 rushing touchdowns (tied 2nd most) to opposing backs. In addition, they have given up 413 receiving yards (7th most) and five receiving touchdowns (most in the NFL) to the position. Gibson’s touches are not consistent, making him a GPP only play, but his ability to both run in between the tackles and catch passes out of the backfield for Washington make him an appealing high upside play at his price tag, in this matchup.
Cash game options: N/A
Gpp options: Antonio Gibson, J.D. McKissic, Terry McLaurin, Logan Thomas, Washington def
Jaguars at Packers, 1 p.m. (Fox)
Jake Luton is the 9th player to have 300 passing yards and a touchdown in his NFL debut. He also had a rushing score. He had a solid 8.0 YPA with 8.5 intended air yards per attempt. The opponent is allowing the 6th fewest points a game to signal callers.
Gardner Minshew (thumb) may or may not make another start this season.
The opponent is allowing the second-most points a week to running backs.
RB Snaps: Robinson 50, Thompson 19
RB Touches: Robinson 25, Thompson 5
James Robinson saw a season-best 25 carries last week though his two targets were his fewest since Week 1. He went 25-99-1 on the ground with no catches. That’s 2-straight of 22 carries, 99 yards and one score. He has scored in 3-straight and he has seven scores this season. He has caught at least four passes in 5-of-6.
Chris Thompson had seven catches in the last matchup. He has 20 catches this season for 146 yards and one score. He has at least three receptions in 5-of-6 games.
DJ Chark went 12-7-146-1 last week. He saw a 32 percent target share in that game. Over the last three games, he nearly has 500 air yards, which is remarkable. That includes eight targets of 20+ yards. This week he will likely see an awful lot of shutdown corner Jaire Alexander (concussion) if he clears the protocol. He has 12 scores since the start of last season, tied for third in AFC at WR.
Keelan Cole has seen four targets his last two games going 2-18, this after a 6-143 effort. In 3-of-4 games he has been under 30-yards and he has one score in six games.
Chris Conley went 7-52 last week, a season-best catch total. He saw eight targets. He has six targets for four catches the previous three games. He has one score this season.
Laviska Shenault Jr. hurt his hamstring last week on the second drive. It is unclear if he will play this week, but he was practicing early in the week.
The opponent allows the 4th fewest points a game to tight ends.
Tyler Eifert went 4-48 last week, a season-best game. He has one score this season. He has one game of 40-yards. He has one game of four receptions.
James O’Shaughnessy has not scored, and in the last six games, he’s gone 15-11-116-0.
K Josh Lambo (hip) has been placed on the IR. The club signed Chase McLaughlin.
Green Bay Packers
Aaron Rodgers went 305-4 last week. That’s three or more touchdown passes in 5-of-6 starts. He’s thrown 11 scores the last three games. Only once this season has he failed to toss two scores in a game, and he has only two picks all season. That’s at least two scores and no picks in 7-of-8 games. The opponent is allowing the third-most points a game to signal callers.
The opponent is allowing the 6th most points a week to running backs.
RB Snaps: Jones 40, Ervin 22, Dexter W. 4
RB Touches: Jones 20, Ervin 12, Dexter W. 2
AJ Dillon (Covid) did not play last week. He’s gone 23-97 this season with one catch.
Tyler Ervin performed about as expected, going 8-24 on the ground and 4-48 as a pass catcher.
Aaron Jones (ankle) surprisingly played, and played a lot in his return on TNF, going 15-58 and then 5-21. For some reason, he was out there late in the 4th quarter in a decided game. In his six games, he’s at least 15 carries five times. He has one rushing score in three outings, but he’s still scored two times in those three. He has one game of 75 rushing yards this season. He has 11 scores his last six at home.
Jamaal Williams (Covid contact) did not play last week. He’s run for 75-yards his last two outings, filling in for Jones. He’s caught 10 passes in those two games, and at least four passes in 3-of-4 games. He has 100 scrimmage yards in 3-of-4 and has six grabs his last two at home.
The opponent allows the 6th fewest points a week to wideouts.
Devante Adams went 12-10-173-1 last week. He has scored six times his last three games averaging 10-141-2 on 13 targets. He can’t be stopped. He scored in the last meeting.
Equanimeous St. Brown played just four snaps last week.
Allen Lazard (abdominal) is close to a return, and it could happen this week. In three outings, his average effort is 4.3 receptions for 85 yards on 5.7 targets, leading to more than 17 PPR points a game. He has two scores as well.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling showed his hands of stone, dropping a pass last week. He also went 4-2-53-2. That was the first time in seven games that he scored. Further, it was his first outing in four games above 35-yards. He has caught a total of three passes in his last three games on nine targets.
The opponent allows the third-most points a game to tight ends. That includes four scores in four games.
Jace Sternberger caught one pass for one-yard last week. That’s one game of five yards since Week 3.
Robert Tonyan caught one lousy pass for five yards. That’s 2-of-3 games with two or fewer targets. He’s also been under 35-yards in 3-of-4 games. He has scored five times his last five at home and he’s also gone 5-75 the last two at home.
CB Jaire Alexander (head) played less than half the game last week.
DFS Notes: The Packers are the biggest favorites on the slate, favored by 13.5 points against the Jaguars. This contest has a 49-point over/under and the Packers have a healthy 31.25 implied team total.
The Green Bay offense is in a dream matchup against a Jaguars defense that ranks dead last in defense according to DVOA. In addition, they rank last in pass defense DVOA and 21st in rush defense DVOA. No matter how you look at it, Jacksonville can be beat easily through the air and on the ground.
Defensively, the Packers sit 21st in overall defense according to DVOA. This is a defense that been very generous to opposing backs this season, allowing 99.5 rushing yards per game, 4.5 YPC, and a league high 11 rushing touchdowns to the position. Not to mention, they have also surrendered 51 receptions (10th most), 473 receiving yards (2nd most), and four receiving touchdowns (tied for 2nd most) to the position, while allowing an 88 percent catch rate, which is the second most allowed by a defense to running backs this season.
Aaron Rodgers (DK $7900, FD $8400, SD 1.2x) is in a phenomenal position to post up big numbers this week. As it is, he’s been playing lights out throwing for over 280 passing yards and at least three passing touchdowns in all but one of his six last games. In fact, Rodgers has thrown three passing touchdowns in all but two games this season. He faces off against a defense that gives up over 280 passing yards per game and has yielded 17 passing touchdowns. The only concern here is the potential blowout, but if this game does indeed get out of control, Rodgers will likely have something to do with it.
Whether you play Rodgers or not, Davante Adams (DK $9000, FD $9500, SD 1x) is an elite play in all formats. His price is through the roof, but rightfully so. He has been peppered with no less than 10 targets in all but one game this season. He has also scored six touchdowns in his last three games and has 10 red zone targets in his last four games, since returning from injury. That volume is unheard of and then to top it off, this is a great matchup. The Jaguars are allowing over 30 fantasy points per game to opposing receivers and have surrendered eight receiving touchdowns.
Aaron Jones (DK $7100, FD $8800, SD 1.15x) is also in a great position this week and if you elect to fade Green Bay’s passing game, then pivoting to Jones would be the way to go. Jacksonville is giving up 98.8 rushing yards per game, 4.5 YPC, and have surrendered eight rushing touchdowns to opposing backs. They also allow an 85 percent catch rate and have yielded two receiving touchdowns, which bodes well for Jones who is a great pass catcher out of the backfield.
With Shenault ruled out this week. We can look at Chris Conley at essentially minimum price. He was peppered with eight targets last week, catching seven passes for 52 yards. Conley showed solid chemistry with rookie quarterback Jake Luton. If you are looking for a salary saver in a great game script, Conley is your guy. It’s also worth noting that Chark draws a tough matchup against Jaire Alexander, so Luton could look in Conley’s direction more often this week.
James Robinson (DK $6600, FD $7300, SD 1.4x) stands out to me as a strong tournament play this week. I know this is not an ideal potential game script, but that has not mattered with Robinson who is a capable pass catcher out of the backfield. In addition, as I mentioned above, this is a great matchup for him. Robinson remains a high volume back and has a huge role in the red zone, increasing his touchdown upside.
Cash game options: Davante Adams, Aaron Jones
Gpp options: Aaron Rodgers, James Robinson, Chris Conley
Eagles at Giants, 1 p.m. (Fox)
Jalen Hurts is exciting.
Carson Wentz has 17 scores and four picks his last eight on the road. Overall, he has two passing scores in 4-straight. He went 359-2 with a rushing score in the Week 7 meeting. He has two rushing scores in three games and five rushing scores in seven games. He leads the league with 12 picks. He has 12 scores in eight matchups.
Corey Clement was a thing for one four-minute stretch. #4MinuteBack
Boston Scott ran for 70-yards the last game. He has 27 carries and five grabs the last two games. In the last meeting, he scored with 92 scrimmage yards. In the last road meeting, he had three scores and 138 scrimmage yards. In the last three in the matchup, he has 90 scrimmage yards and a touchdown in each outing.
Miles Sanders (knee) has 75 scrimmage yards in each of his five games. His average rushing effort this season is 14-87 on the ground. He last played in Week 6. In the past three versus the NFC East, he has three scores. He was practicing early in the week.
JJ Arcega-Whiteside has one catch since Week 5.
Travis Fulgham has a score in 4-of-5 games. He has 70-yards in 4-of-5 games. His average effort in four games is 7-95 on 10 targets. He went 7-68-1 in the last game. He’s gone 5-70 the last four games. He has gone 50-1 the last two on the road.
DeSean Jackson (ankle) is on the IR.
Alshon Jeffrey (body/heart/soul) has scored in the last two in the matchup. He hasn’t played this year, but he was practicing early in the week.
Jalen Reagor returned to action last week and scored for the first time. He actually saw three end zone targets in the game. He has caught eight balls for 112 yards in three games. He could face Issac Yiadom who has done a poor job of holding wideouts down.
Greg Ward has one score in two games, two in four and three in six. Over six games, he’s at 4-35-0.5 as an average. In the last four games, he has only 19 targets getting 14 for 97 yards.
Zach Ertz (ankle) is on the IR.
Dallas Goedert has gone 5-50 the last four on the road. In his last three games, he has five catches. Last time out, he played 84-percent of the snaps but saw just one target, which is remarkable for a team that has targeted the tight end more than any other since the start of last season. #BlameThePlayCalling In the last matchup, he went 10-4-65-0.
Richard Rodgers played just 17 snaps last week. He did not see a target after seeing eight the previous game.
New York Giants
Daniel Jones went 212-1 last week in his first turnover-free game of the year (he fumbled twice but they were recovered). He is also the most pressured QB in football in terms of the percentage of plays. He had two scores and ran for 92 yards in the Week 7 meeting. He has two passing scores in 2-of-3 games and four picks and three fumbles in four games.
RB Snaps: Gallman 44, Lewis 17, Morris 16
RB Touches: Gallman 15, Morris 10, Lewis 5
Devonta Freeman (ankle) last played in Week 7. He only had 12 snaps in his last game. In the three outings before that, he averaged 15 carries for 51 yards and two catches for 19 yards an outing (with one score). He was practicing on a limited basis early in the week.
Wayne Gallman went 14-68-1 last week. He went for 54 scrimmage yards and five catches in the last meeting. He has scored in 3-straight averaging 12-49-1 on the ground while catching seven passes. He has six scores his last eight in the NFC East.
Dion Lewis hadn’t played 30 percent of the snap since Week 4. He has six carries in five games and 10 catches in seven games.
Alfred Morris went 9-73 last week and he’s up to 17-101 the last two games on the ground.
Austin Mack lost a score on replay, he was ruled down at the one, but still went 5-4-72. He played 49 percent of the snaps, stepping up for the loss of Tate.
Sterling Shepard (hip/toe) went 8-6-39 with an 18-yard carry. He has a target share of at least 24 percent in each of the three games since his return with at least six grabs in all three games. He scored in the last meeting and he has five catches his last four games in a row at home. If he sees a lot of Darius Slay, it could be an issue for Shepard.
Darius Slayton caught one pass for three yards, as his floor continues to be cavernous. He has 50-yards in 4-of-5 at home.
Golden Tate didn’t play last week as a disciplinary measure. He had a 39-yards score in the last meeting and has scored the last two in the matchup. He also has scored in 2-straight overall.
Evan Engram went 10-5-48-1 with a drop. That was his first score. That’s a whopping 29 targets in three games averaging 5-52 (at least 5-46 in each game). He has five catches in 3-straight in the matchup. He caught six balls in the last meeting for 46 yards. He has averaged 9.7 targets the last three matchups leading to 6.3 receptions. The opponent allows the fourth-most points a game to tight ends.
DFS Notes: The Eagles are coming off a bye week and face their division rivals, the Giants. This is a rematch from just a few weeks ago, where the Eagles beat the Giants in a nail biter 22-21 in Week 7. This contest has the second lowest over/under on the slate at 44.5 points and Philadelphia is favored by 3.5 points.
Both of these defenses tend to funnel to the pass, but more so the Giants. Philly ranks 10th in rush defense DVOA and 16th in pass defense DVOA, while New York ranks 11th in rush defense DVOA and 28th in pass defense DVOA.
Devonta Freeman was placed on the injured reserve, leaving Wayne Gallman (DK $4500, FD $5700, SD 1.7x) as the Giants lead back. Gallman is cheap across the industry, but he is touchdown dependent and has a tough matchup at hand. To be fair, he has scored a touchdown in three straight games. In his previous meeting against the Eagles, he rushed for 34 yards and a touchdown on 10 carries. He also caught all five of his targets for 20 yards. I am projecting him for 12-15 fantasy points this week, so if you are OK with that type of performance at his price tag, feel free to plug him in.
Evan Engram (DK $4500, FD $5600, SD 1.35x) is my favorite player on the Giants side of the ball. He gets a great matchup against a Philly defense that has struggled against tight ends this season. They are giving up 59.5 receiving yards (7th most) per game and have surrendered six receiving touchdowns (tied 3rd most) to the position. Not to mention, they allow an 80 percent catch rate to tight ends, tied for second most in the league. Engram has no less than nine targets in three straight games and has come down with at least five receptions in each of those contests. He caught his first touchdown of the season last week and should carry that momentum over into this contest.
Carson Wentz (DK $5900, FD $7500, SD 1.3x) has a good matchup this week against New York, a defense that he had success against the last time out. He threw for a season high 359 passing yards and two touchdowns, as well as one rushing touchdowns in Week 7 against New York. The Giants defense gives up over 280 passing yards per game and Wentz has thrown for at least 289 passing yards in each of his last three meetings against this defense, including two 300+ passing yard outings. He is someone I am very keen on in tournaments this week.
I really like the idea of pairing him up with Jalen Reagor (DK $4200, FD $5600, SD 1.85x). Prior to the bye week, Reagor returned to action against the Cowboys after missing his previous five games. In that contest, he ran 23 routes, played in 73 percent of the offensive snaps, and was peppered with six targets (second most). He finished the game with three receptions, a touchdown, and a two-point conversion. Reagor also almost came down with a spectacular catch that would have been his second touchdown of the game, but the Cowboys defender punched the football out of his hands before he was able to gain control of the football.
This is a great matchup against a Giants defense that is allowing the 10th most DK fantasy points per game wide receivers. The Giants give up 181 receiving yards (8th most), have surrendered 130 receptions (tied 4th most), allow a 70 percent catch rate (3rd most), and have yielded nine receiving touchdowns to the position. Travis Fulgham has a difficult one-on-one matchup against James Bradberry, which could open up some extra looks for Reagor in the passing game.
Miles Sanders is expected to return this week and makes for an interesting GPP option. Despite the subpar matchup here, Sanders is capable of posting big numbers in difficult matchups like we saw against the Steelers and Ravens. He’s a tournament only play for me.
Cash game options: N/A
Gpp options: Jalen Reagor, Carson Wentz, Evan Engram, Dallas Goedert, Miles Sanders, Sterling Shepard
Bills at Cardinals, 4:05 p.m. (CBS)
Josh Allen smashed the worst pass defense in NFL history last week, going 415-3 with a rushing score (he led football with 12 passes that gained 15-yards last week). He has three passing scores and one pick in three games. He’s been over 300-passing yards in 2-of-3 and under 155-yards in 2-of-4. He has 15 rushing scores since the start of last season, most for a QB.
RB Snaps: Moss 38, Singletary 31
RB Touches: Moss 11, Singletary 5
Zack Moss went 9-18-1 last week. He caught two balls for 30 yards. He has a rushing score his last two while going 23-99-3 on the ground with two grabs for 30 yards. He’s played 55 percent of the snaps in those two. He has 70 scrimmage yards in 2-of-3.
Devin Singletary went 2-1 last week and then 3-33 as a pass catcher. In 2-of-3 games he’s failed to go 9-30. He’s been under 50 percent of the snaps the last two and under 55 percent the last three. He has one rushing score this season and eight catches in five games.
Cole Beasley went just 3-3-39 last week. That’s two games in a row under 40-yards. He’s been under 50-yards in 3-of-4. He has one game of 55-yards in six outings. He has one score in five games and two this season.
John Brown went 11-8-99 against the hapless Seahawks. He had a total of 63 yards since Week 2 coming into the game. That’s one game of 45-yards in five outings without a single score in that time. He has scored in 2-of-3 on the road.
Gabriel Davis went 5-4-70-1 last week. That was his first score in five games and his first game of 15-yards in four outings.
Stefon Diggs went 12-9-118 last week, his 1st 100-yard game since Week 5 (he has 100 yards in 3-of-4 on the road). He’s caught at least six passes every game since Week 3. His average game this season is 7-90 on 10 targets. Patrick Peterson has underperformed but allowed only one score.
Dawson Knox played 25 snaps in his return, two fewer than Tyler Kroft. Knox played 25 snaps last week but didn’t see a target. He has not scored or three catches in any game. Kroft has seen two targets in two games including a 1-yard score last week.
Kyler Murray is the first QB ever to lose a game with a 150 QB Rating and 25 passes in a game (last week). He still became the 8th QB to pass for three scores and to rush for 100-yards in the same game. He also threw for three scores in back-to-back games for the first time. He has a passing/rushing score in 7-of-8 games. The record for a season is eight games. He has a rushing score in 4-straight at home.
Kenyan Drake (ankle) didn’t play last week. In his last three games, he’s averaged 17-86-1 as a runner with two catches total for nine yards. He has 75 scrimmage yards in 3-of-4 at home. He was practicing early in the week.
Chase Edmonds disappointed going 25-70 on the ground and 3-18 as a pass catcher (he did not have a run longer than six yards) as he played 95 percent of the snaps. He had a whopping 28 touches, didn’t do much, but only ceded two touches out of the backfield to teammates. That’s 30-128-0 on the ground and 10-10-105 as a pass catcher the last two. He has no scores in four games. He has 85 scrimmage yards the last two at home.
The opponent allows the 8th fewest points a week to wideouts.
Larry Fitzgerald went 5-4-54 last week. That’s 13-12-116 the last two games, his first two efforts over 50-yards this season. He has not scored this season. He has scored the last two at home in the matchup.
DeAndre Hopkins went 3-3-30 last week in a stinker, as Xavien Howard shut him down, or maybe, Howard shut down Murray? Hopkins was over a 20-percent target share in every game until Week 9 when he was at 12 percent. He has eight grabs in 3-of-4 at home. He will likely see a lot of Tre’Davious White, who just got smashed by the Seahawks.
Andy Isabella went 3-2-10.
Christian Kirk went 8-5-123-1 last week to lead the team in targets. He has five scores in three games, even though he has only 12 receptions. The last five times out there, he has scored or had seven targets thrown his way. He has scored in 3-straight and each of his last two at home.
Is there actually a tight end on this team?
DFS Notes: This is a game that should get plenty of attention from DFS players this week. It sits with the highest over/under on the slate at 56 points. The Cardinals are just 2.5-point favorites, which means that this should be a competitive and high scoring affair.
Arizona ranks 10th in overall defense, while Buffalo ranks 17th according to DVOA. Both tend to be weaker against the run than they are against the pass.
Kenyan Drake is considered a game-time for this contest after putting in some limited practices this week. If he sits, Chase Edmonds (DK $6300, FD $7100, SD 1.45x) makes for a strong play in all formats. The Bills are giving up over 100 rushing yards per game and 4.5 YPC to opposing backs, to go along with nine touchdowns. Edmonds wasn’t great last week while filling in for Drake, but he did touch the ball 28 times.
Kyler Murray (DK $8000, FD $8800, SD 1.1x) is priced up this week, but rightfully so. He is my top cash game quarterback play this week. He offers such an incredibly high floor to go along with a massive ceiling. So far this season, Murray has topped 65 rushing yards in all but two games and has scored at least one rushing touchdown in all but one game. Not to mention, he has also topped 250 passing yards season and has thrown multiple touchdowns in five games this season. His ability to carve defenses through both the air and on the ground, essentially make him unstoppable. The Bills have surrendered four rushing touchdowns to opposing signal callers this season, which is tied for second most.
You can stack Murray up with DeAndre Hopkins, but this is not an ideal matchup against Tre’Davious White. I’d only be considering Hopkins in tournaments, if you want an Arizona stack. That said, I am more inclined to play a naked Murray this week.
I like the idea of running it back with Stefon Diggs (DK $7500, FD $7900, SD 1.35x) this week. Diggs continues to be the model of consistency each and every week. He leads the NFL with 88 targets and has caught at least six passes in all but one game this year. He will draw coverage from Patrick Peterson, but this is not a difficult of a matchup as some may think, as he has shown the ability to get burned this season.
Josh Allen is an interesting tournament play this week as I expect him to be somewhat low owned. This is not a slam dunk of a matchup like it was last week for Allen, but the Cardinals have been exposed before this season. This sets up to be a great game environment for Allen.
Cash game options: Kyler Murray, Chase Edmonds (only if Drake sits)
Gpp options: Stefon Diggs, DeAndre Hopkins, Josh Allen, John Brown
Broncos at Raiders, 4:05 p.m. (CBS)
Drew Lock went 313-2-1 on 48 passes, a career-high. Still, just 6.5 yards per attempt though, well below his 10.7 aDOT on the year. The Raiders have allowed the 4th most points to signal callers the past four weeks. He has thrown for 300-yards in his two indoor games. He has a rushing score in 2-of-3 games. The opponent is allowing the seventh-most points a game to signal callers on the season.
The opponent is allowing the fourth-most points a week to running backs. The rank last in football in DVOA rush D.
RB Snaps: Gordon 44, Lindsay 28, Freeman 1
RB Touches: Lindsay 8, Gordon 7
Royce Freeman barely saw the field last week.
Melvin Gordon went 6-18 last week with just one target. In the last two games, he’s at 14-44 as a runner and 7-30 as a pass catcher. He has one game of 75 rushing yards since Week 1. He has scored 4-straight in the matchup. He has a score in 4-of-5 on the road.
Phillip Lindsay had a ball hit him in the head. If you can’t get your hands on a ball that hits you in the head, you can’t catch. Lindsay can’t catch. He’s under 80 receiving yards in six games. He went 8-23 on the ground last week. He’s had single-digit carries in 4-of-5 games. He has 75 scrimmage yards in 3-of-4 games.
DaeSean Hamilton has caught eight balls the last three games, but he has one effort of 30-yards this season.
KJ Hamler went 100-6-75 last week as the team’s slot wideout. He also had a 15-yard carry. That’s 2-straight with 90 scrimmage yards or a score. Still, he has just one game of 40 receiving yards since Week 2.
Jerry Jeudy, as predicted by Jeff Mans, went off – going 14-7-125-1 last week with a drop. He has averaged 8.4 targets with a 35 percent air yards share in five starts by Lock this year. He has a touchdown in 2-of-3 on the road. He has started to run nearly all his routes outside with Hamler’s ascension.
Tim Patrick went 9-4-29-1 last week. He has 100 yards in 2-of-3 on the road. That’s 100-yards or a touchdown in 3-of-4 games. He has seven targets or more in 3-of-4. His aDOT of 15.8 is one of the top-10 marks in football.
Noah Fant (ankle) went 3-3-45 last week, as he missed time with the injury. That was the first game this season that he failed to see at least five targets. He hasn’t scored since Week 2. He has a mere 7.2 aDOT but with 6.6 YAC.
Albert Okwuegbunam tore his ACL, and his season is over.
Las Vegas Raiders
Derek Carr went 165-2 on 23 passes last week. In the last two games, both victories, Carr has completed 28 passes while failing to hit 200-yards either time. He has two passing scores in 6-of-7. He has zero picks the last eight in the matchup and has seven scores and one pick in three home games this year. The opponent is allowing the 8th most points a game to signal callers.
The opponent is allowing the 8th fewest points a week to running backs.
RB Snaps: Jacobs 28, Booker 13, Richard 9
RB Touches: Jacobs 15, Booker 8, Richard 2
Devontae Booker went 8-68-1 last week, his best effort of the year. That was his second game of 60 rushing yards in four and his first score of the year. He also played 26 percent of the snaps, a season-high. #RevengeGame
Josh Jacobs went 14-65-1 last week with a three-yard reception. He has just one catch in two games after averaging three catches per outing his first six. He has one score in three games and three in seven. In the last home meeting, he scored twice with 113 scrimmage yards.
Jalen Richard has single-digit rushing marks in 4-of-5 and just two receptions in three games.
The opponent allows the 8th most points a week to wideouts.
Nelson Agholor only saw three targets but went 2-55-1. That four touchdowns in five games. He has scored the last two at home. He only has two catches the last two games and just nine the last four, so there isn’t any volume here.
Bryan Edwards returned to action – and played one snap.
Hunter Renfrow went 3-2-60 last week. That’s 3-straight games of four catches or 60 yards. He has one score in five games.
Henry Ruggs saw three targets for no receptions. In the last three games, he’s gone 4-43-0. He has one score this season, one game of 60-yards and his only game of three catches was in Week 1.
Darren Waller went 10-5-22-1 last week as Waller saw a ginormous 43 percent target share. He’s caught five balls in 5-straight games and in all but one outing this season. He’s averaging 6.3 catches for 49 yards, a horrible 7.9 yards per catch (12.7 last year). He has scored in 3-of-4 games and went 6-107 in the last meeting.
DFS Notes: The Raiders and Broncos face off for the first time this season, in what Vegas expects to be a high scoring game. The over/under for this contest is 51 points and the Raiders are four-point favorites.
This is a great matchup for the Broncos offense, as the Raiders rank 30th in overall defense DVOA, 26th in pass defense DVOA, and 32nd in rush defense DVOA. The Raiders on the other hand, face off against the ninth best defense according to DVOA. The Broncos are top 13 in both pass and rush defense DVOA.
Jerry Jeudy (DK $5600, FD $5800, SD 1.7x) is listed as questionable, as he battles a should injury. If he plays, he makes for a strong play this week. He has been peppered with no less than 10 targets in each of the last two games and has topped 70 receiving yards in each of those contests, scoring a touchdown in his last contest. If he sits, K.J. Hamler becomes a viable option in tournaments at his low price.
Tim Patrick (DK $4900, FD $5500, SD 1.75x) is another receiver I like this week. Whether Jeudy plays or not, Patrick is firmly in play. Patrick continues to play well for this offense and post up solid numbers. Over his last five games, Patrick has three touchdown catches, has topped 100 receiving yards twice, and has at least four receptions and 40 receiving yards in all but one game. He too is questionable with a hamstring injury, but was able to play last week, so barring any setbacks, he should suit up.
Drew Lock (DK $5500, FD $7100, SD 1.6x) won a lot of people money last week and he was one of my priority plays. Guess what? I am going right back to the well here this week. Las Vegas is allowing 273.5 passing yards per game (10th most) and has surrendered 13 passing touchdowns to opposing signal callers. In addition, they have given up three rushing touchdowns to the position, tied for third most in the league. Lock has two rushing touchdowns in the last three games, so this certainly bodes well for him. He remains very affordable across the industry and makes for a strong play in all formats.
On the Raiders side, I am not overly excited about anyone. That said, Darren Waller and Josh Jacobs can be considered this week. Waller sits second among tight ends with 67 targets on the season and at least six targets in all but one game. For a position so volatile, like the tight end position, Waller’s volume provides him with a solid floor. The same can be said about Jacobs, who is second in the NFL in rush attempts with 161. The matchup for these two is not great, but the volume will be there. Jacobs also has a huge role in the red zone as a ball carrier, while Waller leads the team in red zone targets, accounting for 38 percent of the Raiders red zone target share.
Cash game options: Drew Lock, Darren Waller
Gpp options: Tim Patrick, Jerry Jeudy, Noah Fant, Josh Jacobs
Chargers at Dolphins, 4:05 p.m. (CBS)
Los Angeles Chargers
Justin Herbert went 326-2 on 42 passes last week. He has 15 scores and three picks the last five, as he’s gone 260-2 in each outing. He has 10 scores and three picks in three road starts. He had a game-winning score on the second to last play, but it was overturned on replay. He has only two picks in four outings overall.
Tyrod Taylor is holding a clipboard.
RB Snaps: Kelley 43, Ballage 31, Jackson 3
RB Touches: Ballage 17, Kelley 14, Jackson 0
Kalen Ballage – yeah, that guy who stunk up the field with the Dolphins – went 15-69-1 as a runner last week with two grabs for 15 yards. From the outhouse to leading the Chargers backfield in touches. Still had a mere 1.9 YAC in the effort and didn’t break a tackle.
Austin Ekeler (leg) is still on the IR.
Justin Jackson hurt his knee last week right at the start of the game. His status this week is in doubt. He has at least five targets in three of four games, only missing out last week when he played three snaps. He also has 15+ carries in 2-of-3 healthy games. He has 236 scrimmage yards his last two on the road.
Joshua Kelley went 9-28 on the ground and caught 5-31, as well. That’s 2-of-3 games with five grabs. In the last two games, he’s had 16 carries, and the last six games, his rushing high is 43 yards. He hasn’t had a score since Week 1.
Gabe Nabers has scored in 2-straight. He has one catch in each game.
Troymaine Pope (head) didn’t play last week.
Keenan Allen went 11-9-103-1 last week. That’s 2-straight at nine catches and a score. He has at least 10 targets in 3-straight and 6-of-7. In his last six games, he has a touchdown or eight catches every game.
Jalen Guyton has one score in four games. He’s also caught one pass in 4-of-5 outings.
Mike Williams went 7-5-81-0 last week. That’s two straight at 5-80. That’s also three of four at 5-80. In his last four games, he has also scored three times, and in all three of those positive games, he’s seen at least seven targets.
Hunter Henry did his normal blah thing this season with a 7-4-33 effort. In fact, he went 4-33 in Week 8 and then 3-23 in Week 7. In his last four games, he hasn’t hit 35-yards, and in his last five, he’s been under 40-yards even though he’s playing 90 percent of the snaps. Week 2 was the last time that he hit 50-yards and he has but one score this season. The opponent allows the 7th fewest points a game to tight ends.
Ryan Fitzpatrick awaits a return.
Tua Tagovailoa averaged 8.9 yards per attempt with an aDOT of 10.1 last week. That’s 50 pass attempts in two games, though he looked very solid last week (248-2-0 with 35 rushing yards). He has three passing scores and no picks, with nine rushes, in two starts. The Chargers have allowed 16 passing scores and have just four picks. The Chargers are allowing the fourth-most points a game to signal callers.
RB Snaps: Ahmed 28, Howard 21, Laird 12
RB Touches: Howard 10, Ahmed 7, Laird 2
Salvon Ahmed led the Dolphins in snaps and yardage last week (7-38 on the ground) in his debut. He’s not an every-down back.
Lynn Bowden Jr. doesn’t have a carry since Week 5.
Matt Breida (hamstring) did not play last week. He has no rushing scores and just one game of 30 rushing yards (Week 2). He hasn’t played a third of the snaps in any game this season.
Myles Gaskin (knee) is on the IR.
Jordan Howard did his usual thing, going 10-19-1 last week. He has a rushing score in 3-of-4 games. He gave up all the third-down work to his teammates. He is still working on one of the most remarkable lines in recent memory, going 28-33-4 on the ground thus far with one score in 4-of-5 games.
Patrick Laird caught a target for 15 yards last week. He has two catches, and one rush, in three games.
DeAndre Washington was added in a trade last week. He will have a role this week. Since the start of last season, he’s at 111-392-3 (3.6 YPC).
WR Snaps: Parker 55, Grant 29, Perry 23, Williams 17, Hollins 17
Jakeem Grant will likely be called on to take over some of the snaps of Williams. He caught four balls last week and has gone 4-35 in 2-of-3 games. He hasn’t scored or hit 50-yards as a pass catcher. He leads the team with 1.90 yards per route run.
Last week, Mack Hollins scored for the first time since 2017.
DeVante Parker went 7-6-64 last week to lead the team with a 25 percent target share. He has four games with at least seven targets and four games with five or less. He went 4-70-1 in the last meeting. He has gone 4-70 the last four in the matchup.
Preston Williams (foot) went 4-60-1 last week. He has scored in 3-of-4 games. He has been placed on IR and will miss at least three weeks.
The opponent allows the 8th most points a game to tight ends.
Mike Gesicki went 4-3-42 last week on his 27 routes. He has a total of four catches for 50 yards the last three games, as the Dolphins simply cannot find a way to get him consistently involved in the offense.
Adam Shaheen did not catch his target last week on his nine routes. He has two scores in four games.
DFS Notes: The Dolphins continue to surprise people, including myself who is a fan. They have had impressive wins against the Rams and Cardinals in their last two games. This week, they face the Chargers and are favored by 1.5 points. This game has a live 48 implied total, after opening with an over/under of 49 points.
The Dolphins will be without Myles Gaskin, Preston Williams, and Matt Breida is listed as questionable. The Chargers will once again be without Austin Ekeler and Justin Jackson will sit this one out as well. Troymaine Pope is listed as questionable and whether he plays or not becomes important for this backfield.
If Pope can’t suit up this week, we have to look at Kalen Ballage (DK $5000, FD $5300, SD 1.7x) as a possible option. The Dolphins are bad against the run, giving up 98.9 rushing yards per game and 4.6 YPC to opposing backs, while surrendering six rushing touchdowns. They rank 29th in rush defense DVOA. You also have the former team narrative for Ballage here, for those into narratives. Last week, Ballage had 17 touches and totaled 84 yards, while scoring a touchdown. He should once again see plenty of opportunities for this injured Chargers backfield. Again, this is only if Pope does not play and Ballage would only be a tournament play for me. If Pope suits up, I’m avoiding this backfield.
Keenan Allen (DK $7100, FD $7800, SD 1.3x) continues to produce at a high clip consistently. I talked about him last week as one of my favorite plays and the same can be said about him this week. It’s hard not to be enamored with the volume that Allen sees on a weekly basis. He has now been peppered with 10 or more targets in six of his last seven games and has less than eight targets in just one contest. Allen has also scored a touchdown in three of his last four games. The Dolphins have been good against the pass this season, ranking 8th in pass defense DVOA, but Allen draws a great one-on-one matchup against Nik Needham, who has been awful.
On Miami’s side, DeVante Parker is affordable and should see plenty of targets now that Preston Williams is out. Parker caught Tua’s first touchdown pass in Week 8 and led the Dolphins in targets, routes run, and receptions in Week 9. He clearly has become the primary target for Tua. Parker is going to go overlooked this week, making him an interesting tournament play.
Cash game options: Keenan Allen
Gpp options: DeVante Parker, Mike Williams, Kalen Ballage (only if Pope is out)
Bengals at Steelers, 4:25 p.m. (Fox)
Joe Burrow faces the team that has the best pass rush in the NFL. When under pressure this year he is 31st in yards per attempt and 24th in QB Rating. His 221 completions are a record for the first eight games for a rookie. He has five passing scores in two games and five passing scores in four games. He also has a pick in 4-of-5 outings and he’s fumbled five times in four games (lost two). The Steelers are tied for the league lead with 11 picks and they rank third in DVOA pass defense.
The opponent is allowing the third-fewest points a week to running backs.
Gio Bernard had two scores and 78 scrimmage yards in the last game. He has scored in 3-straight. He has caught three passes in 3-straight. In his last two games, he’s gone 28-99 on the ground.
Joe Mixon (foot) didn’t play the last two games. In each of his six games, he’s carried the ball at least 16 times, and the last three, he’s averaged 22-88-1. Ran for 79 yards in the last meeting. He has three rushing scores in the four divisional games.
Samaje Perine scored in the last game.
The opponent allows the 9th most points a week to wideouts.
Tyler Boyd went 6-67-1 in the last game. He has scored in 2-straight. In the last two games, he’s gone 20-17-168-2. He’s seen at least eight targets in all but one of seven games (he had six once). He went 5-101-1 in the last meeting, and he has scored in 2-of-3 in the matchup.
A.J. Green didn’t get there last game, going 2-19, but he has gone 7-80 with 11 targets in 2-of-3. He still has not scored this season. He has seven grabs the last two in the matchup.
Tee Higgins has hit 70-yards in 3-straight and in 4-of-5. In the last six games, he’s averaged 5-76-0.5 on 7.7 targets. He has but one scored in five games.
Auden Tate went 7-65 last game on 45 percent of the snaps. All of those numbers were season-bests, as he entered the game at 4-56.
John Ross (illness) is still with the team. He last caught a pass in Week 1.
Drew Sample has five receptions for 52 yards in three games. All of the catches came in one game, meaning he’s had a zero in 2-of-3. He doesn’t have a score this season. The opponent allows the third-fewest points a game to tight ends.
Ben Roethlisberger has issues with both knees. He’s also been placed on the Covid-19 IR for being in close contact with McDonald. He can still play this week if he continues to test negative. Last week he went 306-3. He has two scores and no picks each of the last two games and at least two scores in 3-straight and 7-of-8 games. He has eight scores and one pick in four home games.
RB Snaps: Conner 32, McFarland 8, Snell 5
RB Touches: Conner 11, McFarland 5, Snell 3
James Conner did not play half the snaps last week, going 9-22 with two catches for -2 yards. In the previous six outings, he averaged 17-82 on the ground with 2.7 receptions while scoring five times. He had a score and 125 scrimmage yards in the last home meeting. He has a score in 3-of-4 divisional games.
Anthony McFarland has gone 11-22 his last five games.
Jaylen Samuels (Covid).
Benny Snell ran for 98 yards in the last meeting. He has scored in three of four games. He has a rushing score in 3-of-4 divisional tilts.
The past three games when Claypool/JuJu/Johnson are healthy (target share): JuJu 23 percent, Johnson 22 percent, Claypool 18 percent.
Chase Claypool went 13-8-69 last week, as he led the team in targets. He has two scores in four games, one rushing. In his last three games, he’s gone 14-109-1 as a pass catcher. That’s 5-36-0.3 per week.
Diontae Johnson went 10-6-77 last week with a drop. In the four complete games he’s played this season, he’s seen at least 10 targets each time. In all four, he’s caught six passes, and in the last three, he’s gone over 75-yards (it was 57 yards in Week 1).
JuJu Smith-Schuster went 7-6-93-1 last week. That’s 3-straight of at least six catches with an average effort of 7-82 on 10 targets. He has one score in five games.
James Washington scored last week. That’s his only catch in three outings. He went 98-1 in the last meeting.
The opponent allows the second-most points a game to tight ends. That includes six scores in four games.
Eric Ebron went 6-3-23-1 last week. That’s a score in 2-straight. Over the last three games, he’s gone 4-40 on 6.3 targets. He has scored 2-straight in the matchup as well.
Vance McDonald has Covid.
DFS Notes: The Steelers and Bengals faces off in what is a lower projected total than I expected. I’m assuming once Big Ben is activated from the Covid list, which is expected, we would see a jump in the total here. At this time, the over/under sits at 46 points, with the Steeler sitting as seven-point favorites.
The Bengals are one of the worst defensive units in the league, sitting at 29th in overall defense DVOA, while the Steelers are one of the best, sitting at 2nd overall.
My favorite play in this game and one of my favorite plays on the entire slate is James Conner (DK $6900, FD $7600, SD 1.35x). He let us down last week, but is in a prime position for a bounce back game here. Cincy ranks 25th in rush defense DVOA and is giving up 124.1 rushing yards (4th most) per game to opposing backs, along with a healthy 5.4 YPC. Conner has a good history against this defense, eclipsing 100 total yards in two of his last three games against them and scoring five touchdowns. Not once in any of those meetings, did Conner fail to gain over 90 yards. He is a strong play in all formats this week despite his lackluster Week 9 performance.
The Steelers receivers are in a great position as well this week, as Cincy ranks 25th in pass defense DVOA as well. JuJu Smith-Schuster and Diontae Johnson (DK $5200, FD $5700, SD 1.55x) are the two I like most this weekend. I lean towards Johnson between the two because of the discount I am getting and the fact that despite missing a game and being knocked injured in others, he is still second on the team in targets. Johnson is being targeted in 26 percent of his routes run. Assuming Big Ben plays, Johnson is a strong point per dollar play at receiver.
Joe Mixon is considered doubtful this week, which means we could see a heavy dose of Giovani Bernard (DK $5400, FD $6200, SD 1.75x). Bernard has done a great job filling in for Mixon in the Bengals last two games. He has at least 18 touches in each of those contests and scored a total of three touchdowns. This is far from an ideal matchup, as the Steelers have not allowed a ton of rushing yards to opposing backs, giving up just 82.4 rushing yards per game. However, Bernard’s usage is high and his role in the passing game provides him with multiple ways to touch the football and score fantasy points. I don’t expect a ceiling game here, but Bernard should be serviceable at a fair price.
Cash game options: James Conner, Giovani Bernard
Gpp options: Diontae Johnson, JuJu-Smith Schuster, Eric Ebron, Ben Roethlisberger (MME only), Tee Higgins, Steelers defense
Seahawks at Rams, 4:25 p.m. (Fox)
Russell Wilson went 390-2-2 last week with a rushing score. He threw for a season-best 390 yards but made many poor throws. He has at least two passing scores in every game and is on pace for an all-time record of 56 touchdown passes. He has three passing scores in 3-of-4 in the matchup. The Rams have allowed nine passing scores, lowest in football.
The opponent is allowing the 7th fewest points a week to running backs.
RB Snaps: Homer 31, Dallas 20, Collins 13
RB Touches: Dallas 9, Homer 9, Collins 2
Chris Carson (foot) didn’t play last week or the week before. In his last two healthy games, he’s scored three times on the ground while averaging 66 rushing yards and 4.5 receptions. In his five full games, he’s averaged 4.2 catches an outing. He has 341 scrimmage yards the last three in the matchup. It is unclear if he will play this week.
DeeJay Dallas scored last week, going 7-31-1. He was also stopped at the 1-yard line on another carry. He went 2-8 as a pass catcher. He has a rushing score in 2-straight, three scores overall, even though he’s gone just 25-72 on the ground and 7-25 as a pass catcher.
Travis Homer played 10 snaps on third down (two for Dallas). He went 6-16 as a runner and then 3-74 as a pass catcher. The carries were a season-best, as were the receptions (he had three catches coming into the game).
Carlos Hyde (hamstring) didn’t play last week or the week before. In his last outing, he went 15-68-1. He had 57 rushing yards before that outing. It is unclear if he will play this week.
Rashaad Penny (knee) should play… sometime.
No wideout has 70-yards against the Rams in six weeks. They allow the second-fewest points a week to wideouts.
Tyler Lockett went 7-4-40 last week even with Wilson nearly throwing for 400-yards. For the fourth time in five games, he was under 45-yards. For the fourth time in five games, he was under five receptions. He has scored in 3-of-4 in the matchup.
DK Metcalf is an absolute monster. He went 9-7-108-1 last week. He’s on pace for 16 scores and just under 1,600 yards. Only once this season has he failed to go 4-90 in an outing. He has five scores the last four outings. He went 6-78 in the last meeting. This week – Jalen Ramsey.
David Moore went 6-4-71-1 last week. He has scored the last two. More than half of his 316 yards have come in two games.
TE Snaps: Hollister 31, Olsen 26, Dissly 21
Will Dissly has exactly one catch in 3-of-4 games. He has one score this season and no games of 40-yards.
Jacob Hollister went 7-5-60 last week, a season-best effort in all three numbers. He led the team’s tight end spot in routes run last week.
Greg Olsen went 3-2-13 last week. He last hit 25-yards in Week 4.
Los Angeles Rams
Seattle is on pace to allow nearly 5,800 passing yards. No team has allowed 4,800 yards before. They allow the most points a game to QBs.
Jared Goff went 292-2-2 in the last meeting. He has thrown for 285 yards the last three at home in the matchup. He has two scores in 4-of-5 at home against the NFC West. He has two passing scores in 3-of-4 overall. In 2-of-3, he has failed to throw for 225-yards. He has four picks in four games.
Cam Akers played four snaps in two games. Then, Henderson was hurt, and he touched the ball 10 times, producing 54 yards. His season-high in the percentage of snaps was Week 1 at 33 percent.
Malcolm Brown has 50 scrimmage yards in 3-straight at home, and he had a rushing score in the last matchup. He has a rushing score in two outings overall. In those two, he’s gone 20-97-1.
Darrell Henderson (thigh) is supposed to be fine after resting during the bye – but he was not practicing early in the week. He has carried the ball 14 times in 3-of-4 games, all the healthy ones. In those three he averaged 15-63-0.3. He has 50 scrimmage yards in 6-of-7.
The opponent allows the most points a week to wideouts. That includes 280 yards a game.
Van Jefferson caught two passes last week, his first time at that number since Week 2.
Cooper Kupp (wrist) has not scored in 4-straight. Last time out, he went 20-11-110-0, a massive outing. He’s been under 45-yards in 2-of-3 games, and he’s been under 70-yards in 4-of-5. He has at least five grabs in 6-of-7 games. He scored in the last meeting and has a score in 3-of-4 in the matchup.
Josh Reynolds has two scores in three games. He’s caught four passes the last two games. He’s been between 44-52 yards in 4-straight.
Robert Woods went 7-85-2 last time out. He has four scores in four games (one rushing). In those four games, he’s been under 30 receiving yards twice. He went 7-98 with 29 rushing yards in the last matchup. He has scored in 3-straight divisional games.
The opponent allows the 6th fewest points a game to tight ends.
Gerald Everett has a score in two games. He’s seen 14 targets, going 9-60-1 in the two games. He’s also caught four passes in 3-of-4 outings. In those four, he’s averaged 4-44 on 5.5 targets.
Tyler Higbee hasn’t scored in five games. In those five, he’s averaged 2.4 catches for 28.4 yards on 3.2 targets an outing. He’s been under 25-yards in 3-of-4 games. He went 7-116 in the last meeting.
DFS Notes: This is going to be a popular game for DFS players and understandably so. The Seahawks and Rams game has a 54.5-point over/under, making it the second highest total on the slate. Seattle is actually a two-point underdog in this one as they face a Rams team on the road who is coming off a bye.
The Rams are a strong defensive unit, ranking 8th overall in defense DVOA. They are also 14th in rush defense DVOA and 10th in pass defense DVOA.
Seattle has been one of the biggest pass funnel defenses in the league all season. They rank 9th in rush defense DVOA, but 29th in pass defense DVOA. No other unit is allowing more passing yards (372.5) and receiving yards to receivers (279.5) per game than Seattle. To top things off, this defense will be without both Quinton Dunbar and Shaquill Griffin on Sunday.
Jared Goff (DK $6500, FD $7400, SD 1.25x) is going to be one of the more popular plays at position. As the numbers above suggest, this Seattle defense is unable to stop the pass. Along with allowing well over 300 passing yards per game, they have surrendered 16 passing touchdowns and a league high five receiving touchdowns to opposing signal callers. Despite not running a ton, Goff has two rushing touchdowns this season. I know that he has been hit or miss this season, but this is a smash spot for him and one that he should have success in. Goff has a good track record against this unit, throwing for over 290 passing yards in four straight meetings against the Seahawks, with six touchdowns during that stretch.
Pairing Goff with either Cooper Kupp (DK $6900, FD $7700, SD 1.45x) or Robert Woods (DK $6600, FD $7200, SD 1.3x) is the way to go. Personally, I slightly lean towards Kupp here because he offers the steadier floor and just as much upside. The difference in price is not significant enough for me to have a huge preference however. It is worth noting that Kupp is dealing with a wrist/oblique injury, but is expected to play. For me, both of these receivers are firmly in play in all formats.
Seattle not only gives up the most receiving yards per game to opposing wideouts, but they have also allowed the most receptions (176), give up a league high 72 percent catch rate, and have surrendered 13 receiving touchdowns (tied for 2nd most) to the position. These Rams receivers should feast in this contest.
Josh Reynolds is also in play in tournaments. He comes at a very low price and he has been more involved in the offense as of late. In his last four games, Reynolds has topped 40 yards in every game and has scored a touchdown in two of those games. Not to mention, he has now been peppered with at least eight targets in each of the last two games. This is a great game environment and he is near min price across the board.
The Rams backfield is one I plan to fade entirely this week. Darrell Henderson is expected to suit up, but considering the matchup and that he’s still dealing with a quad injury, I’m not interested.
The Seattle backfield is also one I am avoiding this week. Chris Carson remains questionable to suit up. Carson Hyde is also listed as questionable. Carson has been unable to practice and is looking more unlikely to suit up this weekend.
Russell Wilson (DK $7700, FD $8900, SD 1.1x) is always in play, though this week I prefer rolling him out in tournaments. The Rams have done an excellent job defending the quarterback position. The give up 217.8 passing yards per game (2nd fewest) and have allowed just nine passing touchdowns (fewest). Needless to say, this is not an ideal matchup, but Wilson has been incredible all season long regardless of matchup.
If you want to pair up Wilson with one of his pass catchers, it’s going to be D.K. Metcalf (DK $7600, FD $8300, SD 1.2x) or Tyler Lockett (DK $6500, FD $7400, SD 1.3x). Of the two, I am always going to lean Metcalf, unless the Seahawks are playing Arizona. This is not an ideal matchup for Metcalf as he should see plenty of Jalen Ramsey. That said, according to beat writer Jourdan Rodrigue, Ramsey will not be shadowing Metcalf this weekend. Per her tweet, Ramsey said “I’m sure I’ll guard him. I’m sure I’ll guard probably all of their receivers at some point in the game.” We obviously have to take this with a grain of salt, but it is noteworthy. Regardless, even in tough matchups, Metcalf has flourished. He is emerging as one of the best receivers in football.
Cash game options: Jared Goff, Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods
Gpp options: Russell Wilson, Josh Reynolds, D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett
49ers at Saints, 4:25 p.m. (Fox)
San Francisco 49ers
Jimmy Garoppolo (ankle) is on the IR.
Nick Mullens played poorly last week, going 291-1-1 on 35 passes. He has 250-yards in 8-of-11 starts, and he hasn’t thrown a pick his last two on the road. In his last four, he’s averaged 268 yards and 1.3 touchdown passes.
They Saints the #5 run defense according to DVOA.
RB Snaps: McKinnon 42, Hasty 15
RB Touches: McKinnon 15, Hasty 6
Tevin Coleman (knee) didn’t play last week. On the year, he’s at 21-50 on the ground in three games with three catches for 34 yards.
JaMycal Hasty went 4-3 on the ground and 2-10 as a pass catcher, as he really didn’t see much of the field with the Niners falling behind the Packers. In the last two games, he’s at 16-32, and on the year, he’s at 36-135 (3.8 YPC). He has just 0.9 yards after contact.
Jerick McKinnon and his tired legs went 12-52-1 last week with 3-16 as a pass catcher. Should be noted, his score came with less than 10 seconds left in a decided game and meant absolutely nothing. That’s two scores in two games. However, here are his rushing numbers the last five games: 25-68-2. He has seven grabs for 56 yards the last two weeks. He has a rushing score in 3-of-4 on the road.
Raheem Mostert (ankle) didn’t play last week. He will not play this week. He had two scores in the last meeting and has six his last four on the road.
Brandon Aiyuk (Covid) didn’t play last week. He’s scored in 2-of-3 games. In the last two games he’s played, he’s seen 17 targets, going 14-206-1. In the last four on the road, he’s averaged five catches and 0.5 touchdowns.
Kendrick Bourne (Covid) didn’t play last week. He scored twice in the last meeting. In his last game, he went 10-8-81, his only game in five over 3-45.
Richie James starred last week, going 13-9-184-1. He had no catches this season before the game as he was turned to because, literally, the Niners had no other option. With Aiyuk/Samuel active, he would likely have little to no role.
Deebo Samuel (hamstring) didn’t play last week. He has 11 receptions the last two games with a score, and in each of the two outings, he went at least 5-65. He has caught all 11 of his targets in the two games while he’s carried the ball four times. He had 109 scrimmage yards in the last meeting and has five grabs his last three on the road. He was not practicing early in the week.
Trent Taylor went 4-1-9 last week. Even as one of two healthy wideouts, he did nothing. What a disappointment.
The Saints have allowed six tight ends to score this season. They allow the 7th most points a game to the position.
Ross Dwelley went 3-52 last week. He played 42 snaps. That’s 4-66-1 on seven targets the last two games.
George Kittle (knee) didn’t play last week. He’s on the IR.
Jordan Reed returned to action and went 2-1-3 last week. He played just 13 snaps. That’s 8-3-26 the last two games, and he’s been under 25-yards in 3-of-4 outings. He has scored twice in three games without Kittle.
New Orleans Saints
Drew Brees was on fire last week, going 222-4 on 32 passes. He had just six incompletions, and all four of his scores were in the red zone. He has two passing scores or 300 passing yards in every game this year. In the last meeting, he threw for 349 yards with six scores (one rushing). He has three touchdown passes the last three in the matchup.
Taysom Hill played QB for nine snaps last week, was in the backfield for five snaps, and was used for five snaps as a receiver (two at tight end). He had a career-best 75 scrimmage yards last game. Heaven help us.
The opponent is allowing the fewest points a week to running backs. The Niners rank 6th in DVOA run defense.
RB Snaps: Kamara 37, Murray 27
RB Touches: Kamara 14, Murray 12
Alvin Kamara went 9-40-1 on the ground and caught five passes for nine yards. The 14 touches were a seasonal low. He has 115 scrimmage yards his last three at home. He led the league with 1,036 scrimmage yards. He has one score in four games.
Latavius Murray has not scored in four games. He’s averaged 9-34 on the ground and 2-12 as a pass catcher in that time.
Emmanuel Sanders went 5-4-38- last week after missing two games with Covid. That’s 4-straight games with a score or six receptions. His average effort that four is 6.5 catches, 77.3 yards and 0.5 touchdowns. #RevengeGame
Tre’Quan Smith caught one pass for 14 yards. It happened to be an end-zone target, and a score, as the Bucs simply did not cover him. That’s 3-straight games with a score or four receptions.
Michael Thomas returned to action and went 6-5-51 in what is obviously his weekly floor. He went 11-134-1 in the last meeting. He has gone 10-100 in 6-of-7 at home.
Jared Cook went 3-2-30 last week with a dropped pass. However, Josh Hill and Adam Trautman scored against the Bucs, further destroying Cook for the Week. Cook scored twice in the last meeting and has scored the last two at home overall. He also has three scores in his last four games overall. The opponent allows the fifth-fewest points a game to tight ends.
DFS Notes: The Saints are coming off an impressive win over the Bucs to take on a beat up 49ers team. New Orleans is the second biggest favorite on the slate, as they sit as 10-point home favorites.
The Saints defense has been up and down all season, but proved last week that they are a solid squad, keeping the Bucs offense to just three points. This week they face a much weaker opponent, who is plagued by injuries. New Orleans ranks 7th in overall defense DVOA, 9th in pass defense DVOA, and 5th in rush defense DVOA.
San Francisco has been solid defensively this season despite dealing with injuries, ranking 12th in overall defense DVOA. They are a bit vulnerable against the pass ranking 19th in pass defense DVOA, while ranking 6th rush defense DVOA.
The 49ers will be without Jimmy Garoppolo, George Kittle, Tevin Coleman, Raheem Mostert, and Deebo Samuel this week. We can expect Jerick McKinnon and JaMychal Hasty to manage the workload for this backfield. None of them make for very strong plays, especially against a Saints defense that gives up only 69.6 rushing yards per game and 3.6 YPC to opposing backs.
Jordan Reed (DK $3500, FD $5000, SD 2x) in interesting this week if you are looking for a cheap tight end option. He draws a good matchup against a Saints defense that is giving up the seventh most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends. New Orleans has allowed 42 receptions (12th most) and six receiving touchdowns (tied 3rd most) to the position. In weeks two and three, Reed was peppered with 14 targets, catching nine passes for 83 yards and two touchdowns while Kittle was sidelined. I do prefer him on DK and SD.
On the Saints side, Alvin Kamara (DK $8200, FD $9000, SD 1x) can once again be considered a priority running back. I would not plug him in cash this week, but he is a solid tournament option. The 49ers have been tough against the run this season, but even in tough matchups, Kamara has shined. His role in the passing game provides him with such a strong floor, as well as an high ceiling. Despite being stout against the run, the 49ers have allowed 44 receptions and two receiving touchdowns with a 79 percent catch rate to opposing backs.
Michael Thomas (DK $7400, FD $8500, SD 1.25x) returned to action last week after being sidelined since Week 2. He caught 5-of-6 targets for 51 yards. Thomas is almost certainly going to go overlooked this week and that could end up being a costly mistake. He is not only in a great matchup, but also underpriced when taking his ceiling and upside into consideration. The one concern I have here is whether or not he will see a ton of volume based on the game script.
Cash game options: N/A
Gpp options: Alvin Kamara, Michael Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders, Saints Defense, Jordan Reed, Brandon Aiyuk
Ravens at Patriots, 8:20 p.m. (NBC)
The Ravens have scored 20 points in 31-straight games, the longest streak in NFL history.
Lamar Jackson is 25-5 to start his career, tied for the most wins in 30 starts in NFL history (Dan Marino). He went 13-58-1 on the ground and 170-0 as a passer. He has 29 rushing attempts in two games, and he’s had a rushing score in 2-of-3. He went 61-2 on the ground in the last meeting and has 15 touchdowns and no picks in five primetime games. The opponent is allowing the fourth-fewest points a game to signal callers.
The Pats have the #31 run defense according to DVOA.
RB Snaps: Dobbins 36, Edwards 24, Hill 3
RB Touches: Dobbins 14, Edwards 1
J.K. Dobbins went 12-30 last week with two grabs for five yards. The last two he’s gone 27-143-0 on the ground while catching three balls for 13 yards. He doesn’t have a rushing score since Week 1.
Gus Edwards went 11-23-1 last week with two grabs for 11 yards. He had four carries inside the 5-yard line. That’s 3-straight games with a rushing score as he’s averaged 14-45-1 playing just under 40 percent of the snaps. He also scored in the last meeting.
Mark Ingram (ankle) may play this week. In his last four, he’s gone 31-141-1 with just one game of 35 rushing yards. He has one catch in four outings. He had 144 scrimmage yards in the last meeting.
Miles Boykin has gone 4-42-1 the last three games on six targets.
Dez Bryant ran two snaps last week in his first NFL action of the year.
Marquise Brown played 21 more snaps than any other wideout on the Ravens last week. It meant nothing as he went 5-3-38. He saw six or more targets the first five games. The last three he’s been at five or less. He has two scores on the year. He has 50 yards in 2-of-3 on the road. He has seen 40 percent of the air yards, third-most.
Devin Duvernay went 1-20 last week and then had a rush for -1 yard. He has one game of three catches and has yet to hit 40-yards in an outing.
Willie Snead has gone 11-9-143 the last two games. He has been under 40-yards in 6-of-7 games. He has one score, back in Week 1.
The opponent allows the second-fewest points a game to tight ends. The Pats have allowed one score.
TE Snaps: Boyle 50, Andrews 38
Mark Andrews was outperformed by Boyle, as he went 3-2-22. He does not have a game of 60-yards this season.
Nick Boyle went 4-4-46 last week. Those three numbers were all season bests.
DL Calais Campbell (calf) is likely to miss weeks.
CB Marlon Humphrey (Covid) is likely to play this week.
New England Patriots
Cam Newton (neck) went 274-0 last week but also 10-16-2 as a runner (from the five and the one). He has eight rushing scores. He has two passing scores this season and two passing scores his last 11 games. He’s been under 175-passing yards in 4-of-5 games.
The opponent is allowing the fourth-fewest points a week to running backs. They have the #1 run defense according to DVOA.
RB Snaps: Burkhead 34, Harris 28, White 21
RB Touches: Burkhead 15, Harris 14, White 6
Rex Burkhead went 12-56-1 last week, on a 1-yard run, and then 3-11 as a pass catcher. That was his first score in five games. That was his first outing in four that he hit 30 rushing yards. He has eight catches for 55 yards in five games.
Damien Harris (chest) went 14-71 last week. In all four games, he’s had 10 carries he’s run for at least 58 yards. He has 70 scrimmage yards in 3-straight. He has two catches in five games and has but one score. He was practicing early in the week.
Sony Michel (quad) could come off IR this week. He had a score and 84 scrimmage yards in the last meeting. He has 80 scrimmage yards in each of the last two meetings.
James White went 2-0 on the ground and 4-24 as a pass catcher. He also had a fumble. That’s 9-5-59 the last two games. He has no scores this season and one game of 40-yards.
The opponent allows the fifth-fewest points a week to wideouts.
Damiere Byrd went 9-5-65 last week. That’s his first game in four over three catches and 39 yards. He doesn’t have a score this season or produced, even though he’s played at least 86 percent of the snaps in every outing.
Julian Edelman (knee) is on the IR.
Isaiah Ford should play this week. He should see time out of the slot.
N’Keal Harry (head) last played a full slate of snaps in Week 6. He has one score this season, and the last four games, he’s gone 14-6-61-1. He was practicing early in the week.
Jakobi Meyers was huge on MNF, going 14-12-169. He’s seen 24 targets the last two games. He is sixth in targets the last three weeks with 30, seeing a nearly 40-percent target share. In the three games, he’s averaged 10-7-96.
Gunner Olszewski went 3-16 last week.
DFS Notes: Thankfully this game is not on the main slate, as it would not be one that many DFS players would be flocking to. This contest is tied with Monday night’s game for the lowest over/under of the week at 43.5 points.
The Patriots are one of the worst defenses in the NFL, ranking 31st in overall DVOA defense, 30th in pass defense DVOA, and 31st in rush defense DVOA. The Ravens on the other hand, are one of the best units in the league, ranked 5th overall in defense according to DVOA. They are also 7th in pass defense DVOA and 1st in rush defense DVOA.
We have plenty of pending news here to keep an eye on. From Baltimore, Mark Ingram could return this week after missing the last two games. He is considered questionable for this contest. If he sits, Dobbins and Edwards are firmly in play against a soft Patriots run defense. If Ingram plays, however, this becomes difficult backfield to invest in as it becomes cluttered.
On the New England side, Stephon Gilmore, N’Keal Harry, and Damien Harris are all questionable. Sony Michel could also return this week. Truth be told, Harry, Harris, and Michel are not players I have a ton of interest in this matchup. The one concern I have about a potential Harry return, is how he impacts Meyers. I think it will be minimal considering the chemistry that Newton and Meyers have, but it is still somewhat worrisome.
In the captain slot, I am sticking with Baltimore players and will mainly be targeting Jackson, Andrews, and Brown as they possess the the highest ceilings in this contest. I don’t like Cam here despite the rushing ability because he’s been very shaky this season and this is a difficult matchup.
Captain slot options: Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews, Marquise Brown
Flex slot options: Cam Newton, Jakobi Meyers, J.K. Dobbins (if Ingram is out), Gus Edwards (if Ingram is out), Rex Burkhead, Ravens defense, both kickers
Monday, November 16th
Vikings at Bears, 8:15 p.m. (ESPN)
Kirk Cousins went 220-3 on 20 passes last week. He has thrown 30 passes only twice this season, and the last two weeks, he’s attempted a mere 34 passes. He has two passing scores in 3-of-4 outings. In his last three games against the Bears, he has three passing scores and two picks. The opponent is allowing the second-fewest points a game to signal callers, and they rank 4th in DVOA pass defense.
RB Snaps: Cook 38, Mattison 16
RB Touches: Cook 24, Mattison 12
Dalvin Cook has 278 rushing yards the last two weeks – after contact. No other back has 200 rushing yards. He went 22-206-2 last week with two grabs for 46 yards. He has a rushing score each of the seven games he’s played including six the last two games with 478 scrimmage yards. Pure insanity. He has scored his last four in a row on the road.
Alexander Mattison went 12-69 last week. He’s at 4.7 YPC this season with a 2.4 YAC mark.
The opponent allows the third-fewest points a week to wideouts.
WR production last two weeks (targets/catches/yards): Thielen 9-5-65, Jefferson 8-6-90
Justin Jefferson played 35 snaps last week. He went 4-3-61. He’s been held off the touchdown chart in 4-of-5 games and he’s been under 25-yards in 2-of-4 outings. He’s also caught exactly three passes in 3-of-4 games.
Adam Thielen played 50 snaps last week. He went 5-2-38. In the last three games, he’s gone 14-8-116-1. He has seven scores this season. He has five grabs in 2-of-3 in the matchup but only one score in 11 games in the matchup.
The Bears have allowed the second-most tight end targets this season.
TE Snaps: Rudolph 42, Smith 22
Kyle Rudolph went 4-3-40 last week. The catches tied a season-best, while the yards were second best. He has gone 3-40 in 2-of-3 but only twice all year, and he has one score, back in Week 3.
Irv Smith went 4-2-10-2 last week. Those were his first two scores of the season. He has scored or gone 4-55 in 3-of-4 outings.
Nick Foles threw 52 passes last week going 335-2. Even so, the Bears didn’t score their first nine possessions. He has two passing scores in 2-straight, but he’s also thrown seven picks in seven games. He’s thrown the ball at least 39 times in 6-straight though it has only led to an average of 260-1.2. The Vikes have allowed 19 passing scores versus six picks while allowing nearly 290 yards and the 4th most points to QBs per game.
Mitch Trubisky jacked his shoulder up last week on his lone snap. What a mess.
RB Snaps: Montgomery 50, Patterson 17, Pierce 1
RB Touches: Montgomery 17, Patterson 7
Lamar Miller (practice squad) could be active this week. He last carried the ball in 2018.
David Montgomery (concussion) went 14-30 on the ground and then 3-12 as a pass catcher last week. His longest run was six yards. That was his 4th straight game of 14 carries, as he’s averaged 17-56 as a runner with 3.5 grabs for 22 yards in that time. He had a score and 113 scrimmage yards in the last meeting.
Ryan Nall went 4-35-1 as a pass catcher last week without a rushing attempt.
The opponent allows the second-most points a week to wideouts. It includes two scores a game.
Targets the last three: Mooney 24, Miller 24, Robinson 21
Anthony Miller went 8-5-59 last week. That’s 19 targets in two games for the mercurial Miller who has run a route on 70+ percent of the dropbacks in each outing while averaging 6.5 catches for 66 yards.
Darnell Mooney saw a team-best 11 targets last week going 5-43. When you catch less than half your targets, there’s an issue. Still, he’s seen 17 targets in two games and the matchup this week is glorious. Over his last four games, he’s over 370 air yards.
Cordarrelle Patterson went 3-13 as a runner last week and 4-27 as a pass catcher. That was his highest yardage total since Week 5.
Allen Robinson leads the league with 14 contested catches and he doesn’t have a drop this season. He went 9-7-81 last week. He has one score in five games, though he has gone 6-80 his last two outings. He went 9-71 in the last meeting.
Jimmy Graham went 6-6-55-1 last week as he scored a meaningless TD with barely a minute left in the game. He has eight end zone targets and is seeing nearly seven targets a game since Week 3.
Cole Kmet has one target in two games and five in five outings.
DFS Notes: As I mentioned above, this contest has the lowest over/under on the slate at just 43.5 points. The Vikings come in as three-point favorites.
Chicago is one of the best defensive units in football, ranking 4th in overall defense according to DVOA. They also rank 4th in pass defense DVOA and 7th in rush defense DVOA. Truth be told, they are allowing 96.9 rushing yards per game and 4.2 YPC to opposing backs, to go along with six rushing touchdowns. Therefore, I am totally on board with plugging in Cook in the captain slot. After all, he has the highest ceiling of any player in this game.
Minnesota on the other hand, ranks 15th in overall defense according to DVOA. They rank 13th in pass defense DVOA and 19th in rush defense DVOA.
David Montgomery remains questionable for this contest after being concussed in the last game. If he plays, he becomes a viable option against the Vikings who allow 107.8 rushing yards per game to running backs. If he sits, we could see them call up Lamar Miller from the practice squad. Miller would become an interesting value play.
My favorite play on the Chicago side is Allen Robinson, followed by Darnell Mooney. This Vikings defense gives up 189.8 receiving yards per game (6th most) to opposing wideouts and has allowed a league high 16 receiving touchdowns to the position. Both are captain eligible for me, but I obviously prefer Robinson.
Captain slot options: Dalvin Cook, Allen Robinson, Darnell Mooney
Flex slot options: Nick Foles, Adam Thielen, Jimmy Graham, Anthony Miller, David Montgomery (check status), Bears defense, both kickers
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