This is a 188 lap event. This is a “Big One” track. A wreck that can take out a number of drivers. Avoiding those drivers is the key. Also, don’t be afraid to leave money on the table in this one……………ANY AMOUNT!
1000Bulbs.com 500 DFS Breakdown
- Talladega Superspeedway
- Sunday 10/13/19 – 2:00 PM
- 2.66 mile, Paved
Last Race Notables: Chase Elliott won.
- Laps Led – Elliott: 45, Logano: 37, Almirola: 27, Stenhouse: 16
- Start/Finish – Elliott 11/1, Preece 30/3, Newman 24/7, Gaughan 29/8, Kyle Busch 22/10, LaJoie 36/11, Sorenson 37/18, Jones 27/19, Jeffrey Earnhardt 33/22, Ware 40/28
Remember, number of laps sway the importance of scoring in different directions. Less laps = less laps led points and less fastest lap points, making place finish and place differential points a bit more valuable. Yes, you will still need the dominator, but it is less likely to have two or three of them and really separate them from the pack. I expect there to be two or three guys to get some significant laps led points this weekend.
Process: Let me give you guys a better idea of what we are doing here for NASCAR. We put out an early article with some track stats and what drivers I will have my eyes on, based on some numbers. Things can change once qualifying and practice are over. So then we put out an update with drivers who seem to be fast or have had a good or bad qualifying run. I put out a total of 12 drivers I like and a few who I am off. The guys I am off are typically guys who don’t run that well here and have qualified in a decent position.
I am trying to narrow things down for you. Too much information can just be confusing. If you need more information, you can look at the projections tab. Take a look at the scoring to better understand why I do it this way.
Drivers will accumulate points as follows:
- Place Differential = +/- 1 PTs (Where they start vs. where they finish…Start 20th, Finish 10th = 10 pts)
- Fastest Laps = +0.5 PTs
- Laps Led = +0.25 PTs
- Finishing Position Scoring (winner 46 pts, 2nd 42 pts, 3rd 41, 4th 40, 39, 38, 37, etc…)
- .1 pts for each lap completed
- Place Differential = +/- .5 PTs (Where they start vs. where they finish…Start 20th, Finish 10th = 5 pts)
- Fastest Laps = +0.5 PTs
- Laps Led = +0.1 PTs
- Finishing Position Scoring (winner 43 pts, 2nd 40 pts, 3rd 38, 4th 37, 36, 35, 34, etc…)
Let’s take a look at some of the track stats.
1000BULBS.COM 500 DFS PICKS
Chase Elliott ($9,800) – Starting 1st. Won here earlier in the year. Has three top 5’s in seven races here. Chase should be fast, and if he can avoid the big one, a real threat to win.
Brad Keselowski ($9,600) – Starting 6th. With 11 top 10’s, seven top 5’s and five wins here at Talladega, Kes knows how to run here. A bit of a rough go here in the last three, but he won it in 2017. Price break and some real value in my opinion.
Denny Hamlin ($10,300) – Stating 40th. Here is your chalk. Good chalk. Take the square and move on. Top team starting last. He blew up during qualifying.
Kevin Harvick ($10,500) – Starting 15th. 15 top 10’s, seven top 5’s and a win here at Talladega. Playoff guy, most consistent at Talladega of the studs left.
Joey Logano ($9,400) – Starting 10th. It takes working together here to do well, and both Kes and Logano are on my radar as teammates to do just that. Logano has 10 top 10’s, eight top 5’s and three wins here. Not to mention finishing 4th, 5th, 1st and 4th in his last four here.
Alex Bowman ($8,400) – Starting 2nd. Two top 10’s, one top 5 here. Finished 2nd earlier in the year. We know how Hendrick cars run well on the super speedways. I look for a competitive run on Sunday for Bowman.
Clint Bowyer ($9,200) – Starting 8th. 13 top 10’s, seven top 5’s and two wins here at Talladega. Outside of the next round of the playoffs right now. Needs a solid run on Sunday and he knows how to run the Dega.
Matt DiBenedetto ($7,900) – Starting 31st. Starting position play. Matt is running good equipment and has run some good races at superspeedways. Lot’s of upside here and will be popular.
Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. ($7,500) – Starting 7th. Seven top 10’s, five top 5’s and a win. Ricky runs well at these superspeedways. Some risk starting so far up front, but will be fast and a potential good finish.
Ok, so next I am going to lump a few drivers together. Low-end guys who are starting in the back. They just run around the track at the back and miss the “Big One,” a wreck that takes out a number of the competitive drivers. Don’t be afraid to have two or three of these guys in your lineups, mixed in with three top 5 drivers will win you some $$$$$$
Spencer Boyd ($4,500) – Starting 39th
Reed Sorenson ($4,900) – Starting 38th
Joey Gase ($5,100) – Starting 36th
Corey Lajoie ($5,500) – Starting 33rd
Ross Chastain ($5,600) – Starting 34th
Austin Theriault ($4,600) – Starting 37th
1000BULBS.COM 500 PICKS TO WIN
- Brad Keselowski
- Joey Logano
- Chase Elliott
- Sleeper – Alex Bowman
Last race predictions: Drydene 400
As usual, if you have any questions, hit me up on twitter @trmp31.